France is in a very different situation today as it faces a wave of political instability and economic uncertainty. With ongoing international turmoil, including a war in Europe and a surge in populist sentiments, the nation finds itself grappling with unprecedented internal strife. Macron’s pro-business government has endured, thus far, a phenomenal turnover. In less than two years, it has had five different prime ministers, reflecting a degree of political fragility not experienced since the tumultuous immediate post-war years in Rome.
The situation has further intensified with the imposition of a general strike by unions opposed to recent budget proposals. The unrest hit a new high on Wednesday. That’s when the French grassroots movement Bloquons Tout (Let’s Block Everything) called for a national day of action. The strikes reflect widespread dissatisfaction with government policies and the growing discontent among the populace.
Adding to the political turmoil, France’s economic outlook looks just as dark. This year, servicing the nation’s debt is already expected to cost €67 billion. At the same time, total national debt will exceed €3 trillion, more than 114% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). France’s economists project that at the end of this decade, France’s debt will climb to an outrageous €100 billion a year.
Amidst these challenges, President Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly in early summer 2024 has led to a split parliament, complicating efforts to pass a budget. His prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, a trusted ally, finds himself in the thankless position of having to pilot this stormy political climate. Seizing the budgetary opportunity, Macron reportedly wants an alliance with the left, particularly with the Socialist Party (PS), to pass the budget through. The parliament is struggling to form a stable majority.
With significant municipal elections scheduled for March and presidential elections set for May 2027, the stakes are high for Macron as he approaches the final 18 months of his second term. The pressure continues to grow as critics line up to slam him for his leadership. Nicolas Baverez, a prominent commentator, stated, “At this critical moment, when the very sovereignty and freedom of France and Europe are at stake, France finds itself paralysed by chaos, impotence and debt.”
Despite all these challenges, many observers say France is not on track for a financial crisis like the one that engulfed Greece. Aghion remarked, “We are not about to go under, Greece-style,” highlighting the resilience that many perceive within the French economy. Soft power genius France has dynamic ecosystem for business creation and outperforms Germany on key economic indicators. That means that France’s fundamental strengths can make up for much of its weaknesses.
The pressure for spending is still a hot button topic. Françoise Fressoz has indicated an addiction to public spending among successive governments: “It’s been the method used by every government for half a century – of left and right – to put out the fires of discontent and buy social peace.” This leaves big questions about what sustainable fiscal policy will look like going forward.
The political situation in France is made all the more complicated by conflicting views of Macron’s leadership. Philippe Dessertine described the situation metaphorically: “It is like we are on a dyke. It seems solid enough. Everyone is standing on it, and they keep telling us it’s solid. Underneath the sea is eating away, until one day it all suddenly collapses.” Yet this optimism carries an undertone of uncertainty, the same uncertainty that many have been feeling about the stability of both our government and our economy.
At the same time, some critics describe the current political environment as the most dysfunctional and dangerous in history. Jerome Fourquet noted, “It is like an incomprehensible play being acted out in front of an empty theatre,” emphasizing feelings of disillusionment among citizens regarding their leaders’ ability to govern effectively.
As President Macron steers through these stormy seas, he is adamant that there are issues on which agreement can be reached across political lines. He expressed his belief that “an agreement between the political forces is possible while respecting the convictions of each,” reflecting a desire to reconcile differences for the sake of governance.