As you may have seen in recent days, the war in Ukraine has escalated dramatically. This military escalation has resulted in tragic loss of civilian life and massive military buildup. Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s human rights commissioner, made the announcement of this heartbreaking news. Russian shelling has killed at least six civilians so far, including 11- and 14-year-old boys. These attacks utilized both drones and missiles, which have since continued to rain down on other parts of western and central Ukraine.
In response to the escalating threat, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced enhancements to the nation’s air-defense network, bolstered by support from Germany. First of all, Zelenskyy made it clear that the Patriot component has significantly boosted their Ukrainian air defense system. This commitment will help make America’s national security more resilient amid these persistent attacks.
The mood in the eastern city of Pokrovsk is grim. In the east, Ukraine has used special operations forces to resist a larger Russian invasion force. Kyiv officials claim that at least 200 Russian soldiers have broken through Pokrovsk’s defenses. This latest move increases tensions in an already precarious territory. The rapid deployment underscores both the fighting spirit of Ukraine that wants to take back control and counter the widespread, daily Russian attacks.
As ground battles escalate the effects of these Russian aerial assaults, as explained below, hit even deeper than those that just immediately die. Recent attacks have plunged millions into darkness. The entire Donetsk region east of the city of Kramatorsk and almost 58,000 southern Zaporizhzhia region households are now impacted. As if that weren’t enough to add to the challenges of life for Ukrainian citizens, reports suggest Russian forces attacked the Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa regions.
Even now, Ukraine is pushing for more sophisticated military assets to strengthen its defenses. Most prominently there have been talks of procuring Tomahawk missiles, which would allow Ukraine to conduct long range, precision strikes deep behind Russian lines. Former President Donald Trump, a Republican front-runner, has signaled his opposition to supplying weapons to Ukraine. He told reporters that he is “not really” thinking about that.
Not withstanding these challenges, Ukraine has continued to conduct successful drone operations against high-value Russian military assets. A recent Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Tuapse oil port in the Black Sea resulted in a fire and damage to two ships, showcasing Ukraine’s capability to strike strategic targets effectively.
In the larger context of all this, inside the conflict theater and outside of it, Turkey plays a major role. It continues to import, often en masse, Russian crude oil. Recent moves indicate a sea change. Turkish refiners are already paying the price with their pockets, now buying more non-Russian oil as Western sanctions on Russia harden. SOCAR Turkey Aegean Refinery (STAR) has recently booked four cargoes of crude arriving from Iraq and Kazakhstan. This decision represents a major tactical change in their approach to buying energy.
Due to the conflict escalating, Turkish refineries, including Tupras, are forced to act decisively. They are working to fully eliminate Russian crude imports at one of their large refineries. This decision highlights the increasingly precarious chessboard of global oil markets arranged by the forces of geopolitical flare and sanction.