According to the latest polling numbers, former President Donald Trump is losing support fast. This sad trend continues across all key areas. The U.S. economy is headed for a recession as it rudely bumps up against rising headwinds. These concerns range from job market trends to the expected impacts of artificial intelligence and automation on jobs.
Recent polls indicate that story isn’t true with Trump’s approval ratings having plummeted, with no recovery in sight. Favorability ratings are sliding “like rocks,” in the words of analysts. Now, he’ll be fighting an uphill battle to regain trust with voters. Specifically, there’s no issue at all on which Trump now enjoys greater favorability.
With the labor market showing ever more indications of being stretched, the U.S. economy could create many fewer new jobs going forward. The increased use of artificial intelligence and robotics quickly replaces human labor. Second, many sectors of the economy are retreating from production, increasing clouds of uncertainty. Our current workforce can’t keep up with changing job requirements. For others, some of whom live in very rural areas, high barriers remain, especially with education, addiction, health or advancing age.
The recent Challenger layoff report underscores these concerns, citing “almost 950,000 US job cuts this year through September,” marking the highest year-to-date total since 2020. This unnerving statistic underscores the challenges that workers encounter as they try to find stable work in the wake of technology and their changing economic environments.
On top of these domestic challenges, the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates is still quite hawkish. The Fed funds futures betting market as it stands now shows a lot of doubt about a possible rate cut in December. The probability of such a cut has plummeted from 94.4% to 67.5% within just a week, signaling uncertainty among investors and economists alike.
China is still surfing on the wave of the global economic downturn. For one, they are letting their currency appreciate, which automatically devalues the dollar just in time for a tense summit with U.S. negotiators. This could put another big boat in Trump’s path as he tries to steer the U.S. economy in the right direction while making his own political comeback.
Interest rates abroad are getting a lot of attention too. Brazil’s 10-year note boasts an impressive interest rate of 13.805%, while Mexico’s stands at 8.65%, more than double that of the U.S. These rates may have large knock-on effects on investment decisions, as international investors consider location substitutes on the global stage.
At the same time, the UK government is considering doing something far more radical. Capping the charge It would cap their charge at 20 percent of a former emigrant’s total income over their working life. This tax aims to generate around £2 billion for the Treasury by taxing UK assets sold by emigrants without facing capital gains tax.
With economic anxieties ascending, both matched with zero new U.S. job growth. September’s job growth predicts a gain of just 30,000 jobs in the months ahead – a number most expect to be a letdown for the alarming new economic conditions.