And as Aaron noted yesterday, the US economy flexed its surprising resilience last month, adding 42,000 private-sector jobs in the strongest surprise of the report. This shining piece of positive news stands out even more given the overall harsh economic climate. The nation has now entered into the longest such government shutdown in its history. As Americans increasingly express concern over economic stability, the stock market is experiencing pronounced volatility, raising questions about the future of both employment and trade.
This net addition of 42,000 jobs is good news and indicative of a resilient labor market. Analysts warn that this growth may still not be enough to offset other troubling trends. The current government shutdown has already outlived all previous shutdowns. This perfect storm is poised to have severe impacts on workers and employers, broadly. Economists warn that if uncertainty continues, it will weigh on consumer confidence and consumer spending, creating a vicious cycle that worsens the crisis.
And that’s in the face of rapidly increasing employment where layoff announcements jumped to dramatic new heights last month — the worst October for job cuts in 22 years. Unfortunately, this trend has caused the average American to feel more down on their economic prospects than ever before. A new survey finds rosy expectations about the economy have tanked among Americans. With no end in sight for the shutdown, people and families should not have to live in fear for their financial security.
The stock market reflects this apprehension. And indeed the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently stumbled. Meanwhile, the tech sector stocks have taken a hit too as volatility climbs on Wall Street. Investors are closely watching their own S&P 500. They’re watching its 125-day moving average to measure market activity levels against the past several months. What’s important as far as the performance of the S&P 500 goes is that it is indicative of positive momentum in the market. Traders use it to test strength against prior trading sessions.
Along with limited domestic uncertainties, international trade has as well. Now the specter of a tariff refund hovers over these businesses, and experts caution that this has the makings of a “giant mess.” Your trade agreements hang in the balance! A landmark Supreme Court case could determine the future of these tariffs imposed by former President Trump. How this case plays out will determine the landscape for seizing the promised $90 billion in new tariff revenue. This revenue is critical lifeblood for a variety of sectors across the economy.
The Fear & Greed Index is a market sentiment gauge that combines seven different market indicators. For the moment, it’s pointing to a growing fear among traders. The index gives each indicator equal weight, producing a score on a scale of 0 to 100. A low score around zero means extreme fear in the market, whereas a high score closer to 100 means extreme greed. Right now, the indicators paint a picture where fear is winning out, driving the bus on where money is being invested.
Yet, at the same time, communities from coast to coast are on the precipice of disaster as basic resources run dry. One community in particular is preparing for the worst as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funding runs out and becomes more limited. Now, with their food supplies dwindling and no clear indication over continuing government assistance, residents face a dangerous situation.
The stock market’s well-being is all about the hundreds of underlying stocks – the health of each helps the whole. The strength of stock prices is often measured through net new 52-week highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The quick turnaround of boom-bust market cycles along with increasing daily layoff announcements sound the alarm for what happens next.