In fact, the EUR/USD currency pair was on fire on Tuesday. It moved higher still during the first hours of American trading, getting within striking distance of the important psychological barrier located at 1.1600. This movement coincided with concerning employment data from the United States, which indicated a loss of 11,250 jobs in the private sector over the four weeks ending October 25. The market is in high focus on all of these aspects. At the same time, euro sentiment is strengthening as the US dollar weakens and European economic data begins to signal some cautious optimism.
The recent report from Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) revealed that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.” This alarming statistic added to fears that the US labor market may not be as resilient as everybody thinks. Consequently, it weighed on investor sentiment and further increased volatility in the currency markets.
The EUR/USD currency pair is gaining steam. It faces significant headwind at the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) which is presently at 1.1623. Our Momentum indicator is still in positive territory. Notably, it has weak directional strength, indicating that any upwards movement might not stand the test without some further supportive data.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65 and climbing. At the same time, its upward slope means that the euro can rise even more against the dollar. The RSI’s bullish performance shows that the pair can continue the upward pressure if the overall market is to favor the pair. As traders look to see where to enter, they’ll have a close eye on these indicators.
Beyond the impact of the employment worries in the US, Germany’s economic sentiment data has made noteworthy waves as well. As for sentiment among the German financial and investment community, the November ZEW survey surprised to the downside, with Economic Sentiment dropping to 38.5 from 39.3 in October. This drop not only underscores the current difficulties plaguing Europe’s strongest economy, it casts a deeper shadow of uncertainty over the overall economic forecast.
At the same time, political events in the USA have weighed on market sentiment. The Senate recently passed a temporary funding bill aimed at reopening the federal government after it has been on pause since October 1. President Donald Trump is expected to sign this bill into law very soon. Though this action would help alleviate some short-term fiscal challenges, it fails to speak to the broader issues as indicated by employment numbers that lie ahead.
The EUR/USD price has recently cleared three hurdles. It is trading well above the ascending 200-day SMA, reflecting firm bullish momentum in the medium-term. Still, it continues to exchange under the 100-day SMA at 1.1666. The potential for a lurking, bearish 20-day SMA just below the 100-day SMA adds yet another layer of immediacy to the technical landscape on the charts for traders.
As this economic landscape unfolds, market participants will continue to monitor forthcoming data releases and geopolitical developments that could influence currency movements. The interplay between US employment statistics and European economic indicators will be crucial in shaping the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.