In the last few weeks, Russia has continuously violated airspace across Europe, most threateningly to those countries that border on its homeland. These incursions have sparked significant concern among NATO allies regarding Moscow’s intentions and its commitment to testing NATO’s defense protocols. In response, nations like Poland and Estonia have vowed to confront these violations decisively, alongside reaffirming their commitments to NATO’s collective defense.
Just earlier this month, Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace. In short, in what we now know to be a classic case of missile errant, NATO fighters quickly intervened and shot them down. This attack is not an outlier. A different drone incursion into Romania made headlines just last week. Estonia reported that three Russian MiG-31 jets crossed into its airspace for 12 minutes before being forced to withdraw, further highlighting the precarious situation in Eastern Europe.
NATO leaders express that Russia’s actions represent a clear test of the alliance’s resolve. And today, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, categorically denied all of Estonia’s claims regarding the jet incursion. He pointed out that there are no objective, publicly available monitoring data to support those claims. He called the charges “baseless” and a reflection of a dangerous and reckless ratcheting up of tensions.
“We never heard in the Estonian statement that they have objective monitoring data to back up their claim. That is why we consider such words to be empty, unfounded and a continuation of a completely reckless pattern of escalating tensions and provoking a confrontational atmosphere.” – Dmitry Peskov
To these denials, Estonia’s hard-line Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna responded in no uncertain terms, accusing Russia of lying to cover for its aggressive actions. He noted that the incursion into Danish airspace is “abundantly clear” and that Russia is known for its deceptive narratives.
“The violation is crystal clear, and Russia is lying again, as it has lied before several times.” – Margus Tsahkna
The escalation of this fragile situation has already led to responses from our European allies. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, one of the UK Labour Party’s leading figures, described Russia’s actions as “dangerous and reckless.” She stressed that NATO allies need to be prepared for more Russian incursions. She stated, “We stand ready to take all steps necessary to defend NATO skies and NATO’s territory … If we need to confront planes operating in NATO airspace without permission, we will.”
In Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk went on the offensive. He announced that the country would react aggressively to any violations of its airspace. He stated, “I want to be very clear. We will make a decision to shoot down flying objects without discussion when they violate our territory and fly over [Poland]. There is no room for debate here.”
Secondly, the United States has made a point of reaffirming the ironclad nature of U.S. defense of NATO—specifically Article 5. Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN, assured allies that “the United States and our allies will defend every inch of NATO territory,” emphasizing the need for Russia to cease its dangerous behavior.
Russia’s escalation on military basis have created panic on circles of adjacent countries such a escalation on larger conflict. Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Denmark’s foreign minister, articulated these concerns, noting that Russia’s neighbors fear they could be next on Moscow’s agenda.
Second, so far Vladimir Putin has been quite public about his desire to avoid provocation of a new arms race. His government’s recent military maneuvers send an alternate signal. Russia’s military plans and intentions throughout the region remain unclear. This prompts speculation on either Moscow’s intent to further increase tensions or its inability to control its military actions on the ground.
“Either Moscow wants to escalate and pull more countries into this conflict with Ukraine, or it doesn’t have full control of those who operate its fighter planes and drones. Either scenario is very disconcerting.” – Mike Waltz
As the war escalated, European NATO members have rallied. They all agreed that next time there was a violation of their airspace, to respond with harsh and coordinated measures. Radosław Sikorski, the then-Polish foreign minister, threatened that if even one missile or plane crossed into NATO territory uninvited, there would be hell to pay.
“If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don’t come here to whine about it.” – Radosław Sikorski