A prolonged drought has turned a village in Turkana, northern Kenya into a wasteland. This drought is the most extreme: it’s the worst in the region’s history, as seen in 2023. This bleak reality only serves to emphasize the drastic need for strong climate action. As the recent COP30 conference in Brazil exposed, that’s a grim reality. …we have begun to realize that the world has done very little in terms of progress against the already unfolding climate catastrophe.
Future climate change commitments made under the Paris Agreement would require holding global heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. It continues to be an important yardstick for international climate negotiations. Vulnerable countries, facing unprecedented challenges, demanded $120 billion (£92 billion) annually for adaptation by 2030. Developed countries promised just $300 billion for adaptation. Unfortunately, these funds will not be available until 2035.
Over the past two weeks, hundreds of delegates from 194 countries have met in Brazil. Their key victory was working with the legislature to establish a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. Perhaps most strikingly, was the lack of a US delegation, a country which has played a deeply influential role in climate negotiations over the last decades. The talks, prolonged and intense, culminated in a closing meeting that extended for 12 hours, concluding at 1:35 PM.
More than 80 countries supported a commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” in the final outcome of the conference. This commitment was opposed by the countries united under an umbrella by the Arab bloc, with Saudi Arabia at the helm. More than 90 countries coalesced around the need for better protections for forests. Advocates for nature reacted with disappointment when a push for a global roadmap to stop deforestation was removed from the final agreement.
Providing adequate financing was key, noted Teresa Anderson, ActionAid International’s global lead on climate justice. She thinks it’s key to addressing the climate crisis. She added, “A huge shortfall in climate finance is making a big monkey wrench on climate progress.” Though they may look good on paper, the promises made fall short considering the depth of the crisis.
Power Shift Africa director Mohamed Adow did not mince words in sharing his frustration. His words underscore a broader disappointment with the provisional outcomes of COP30. He continued, “The geopolitical context is getting very complicated and divided. COP30 took great baby steps forward, but it’s just not all that is needed to respond to the climate emergency.”
Jennifer Morgan, a longtime observer of COP negotiations, didn’t mince words. As she concluded, while the outcome in Belém may not be as strong as we need it to be, it’s nonetheless a huge step forward.
“While far from what’s needed, the outcome in Belém is meaningful progress.” – Jennifer Morgan
The conference made clear the need to prioritize climate impacts on our most vulnerable populations. Ali Mohamed underscored that the urgency of climate action has never been clearer than at this 30th COP. He too called attention to the unequal dangers that the most vulnerable communities share. He stressed that Kenya and the continent are prepared to lead the way on a global transition to clean energy. On this issue, he warned, resilience and adaptation need to stay at the forefront for a continent that accounts for under 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
“Kenya and Africa stand ready to lead in the transition to clean energy, but resilience and adaptation cannot remain afterthoughts for a continent responsible for less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions.” – Ali Mohamed
Though not as evident on the surface, there was undeniable momentum in the forest protection and fossil fuel phaseout spaces. Many advocates remain concerned over what was left on the table. Carolina Pasquali lamented, “We must reflect on what was possible and what is now missing: the roadmaps to end forest destruction and fossil fuels and an ongoing lack of finance.”
As governments go home after COP30, they will be under increasing pressure to act concretely and effectively on climate change. António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, has warned that failure to do so could lead to dire consequences: “Push ecosystems past irreversible tipping points, expose billions to unliveable conditions, and amplify threats to peace and security.”
The results of COP30 will show the level of commitment vs. resistance each country is willing to accept while coping with the growing realities of climate change. While some nations push for robust climate finance and a clear roadmap for fossil fuel reduction, others appear hesitant to abandon traditional energy sources.