Donald Trump has released a bizarre 28-point peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine. He’s dubbed the plan his “Christmas gift” to Russian President Vladimir Putin. This proposal has sparked a firestorm of criticism for undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty and for allegedly favoring Russia. Kirill Dmitriev, a trusted Putin crony and CEO of Russia’s $10 billion sovereign wealth fund, co-produced the proposal. It received some important input from prominent Americans, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Perhaps no part of Trump’s plan has been more vilified than its last provision, which extends full and complete immunity from prosecution to Russia. The July 2022 clause also thus effectively negates any international criminal court warrants that may be issued against Putin and his top-ranking henchpeople. The plan accepts Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as de facto Russian lands. This action follows directly on the heels of Moscow’s repeated assertions of sovereignty over these areas. Additionally, it provides Putin empty Donetsk territory to occupy. This provocation increases fears about more Ukrainian territorial concessions to Ukraine.
The plan lays out strict provisions for the rebuilding of Ukraine. It stipulates that the reconstruction efforts will be funded by using frozen Russian assets. Critics claim that the net shape of the plan tilts heavily in favor of Russia. Most pointedly, Trump’s frequent admiration of Putin has resulted in charges that the proposal is not bias free and fair.
In continuing to focus on the plan, Trump has made headlines by attacking Ukraine itself for its alleged ingratitude towards the US. This is not to say that his peace initiative is all bad—as he himself would be quick to tell you. Further, he calls for extending any deadlines associated with it as necessary. In addition, the proposal would require Ukraine to change its constitution and eliminate language making it a goal for Ukraine to join NATO. Not surprisingly, many see this move as eroding Ukraine’s security guarantees.
At this point, Trump has enormous power over U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. His past unilateral decisions to slash direct military assistance have resulted in critical shortfalls in the Ukrainian armed forces. This factor makes things even worse. Ukraine’s continued progress toward democracy and the rule of law critically hinges on international support as it continues to endure the aggression of Russia.
European and Ukrainian negotiators have been vociferously opposed to the proposal. They are lobbying to change it into a more comprehensive framework that would do more to help Ukraine. Critics further contend that Trump’s blueprint was developed without any serious involvement from Ukraine. It leaves us wondering whether it is substantive or merely performative, whether it’s a true sign of potentially sustainable peace.
Unfortunately for Trump’s peace plan, it doesn’t meet all of Putin’s demands. It has enough concessions buried in its pages for the Kremlin chief to crow about a sense of victory. This dynamic complicates the potential for a balanced resolution to the conflict, as it appears to prioritize political considerations over tangible outcomes for Ukraine.