Russian President Vladimir Putin has escalated his threats against Ukraine, calling for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s regime to be overthrown and their government “illegal.” This announcement marks the most blatant shift yet in the Kremlin’s approach towards the nearly year-long war that worsens by the day. As war continues to rage, Putin’s brutal regime is hellbent on establishing its control over Ukraine. Parallel to this, they continue to doubt the sincerity of resulting Western diplomatic overtures.
In recent propaganda statements, Putin cast doubt on whether such agreements with Ukraine would be legally binding. He rightly established an expectation of more from his administration beyond land for peace. They want nothing less than Ukraine’s total defeat and its total reincorporation into Moscow’s orbit. This strategy is designed to ensure Ukraine remains vulnerable to continued aggression, in essence perpetuating the undermining of their sovereignty.
In addition to the call for negotiations, Putin doubled down on his demands for Ukraine to capitulate more of the eastern industrial regions. In doing so, he made clear that noncompliance would mean ceding land by “force of arms.” This aggressive posture is indicative of a deeper strategy focused on pressuring Ukraine. Its aim is to realize a cynical balkanization of its land.
Our Kremlin’s foreign policy scholars have noted the dangers of protracted conflict. One notable statement from Rossiyskaya Gazeta highlighted this perspective:
“As long as hostilities continue, leverage remains. As soon as they cease, Russia finds itself alone (we harbour no illusions) in the face of coordinated political and diplomatic pressure.” – Rossiyskaya Gazeta
This perspective focuses on the fact that as long as military operations continue, Russia has leverage. There is a recognition that stopping hostilities is likely to reduce Russia’s position, leaving it vulnerable to further diplomatic isolation.
Even with current military operations, Putin’s campaign is characterized by small incremental gains in eastern Ukraine. These advances do not come cheap, either in military resources or human lives. Still, the sluggish advance belies the struggle of Russian forces as they meet stiff Ukrainian opposition.
Amid these developments, Putin has demonstrated a clear disinterest in negotiating a ceasefire that would allow for discussions where Ukraine’s rights as a sovereign nation are acknowledged and reasserted. His government is wary of the latest diplomatic overtures from Washington. They think he thinks that he perceives them as unserious, as lacking in credibility.
As the situation evolves, there is concern that Putin’s actions could jeopardize not only Ukraine’s future but Europe’s broader security landscape. The ramifications go much farther than the current war, likely emboldening authoritarian governments around the globe to follow suit with their own aggressive playbooks.