Tensions in Venezuela have reached a boiling point. This increase is in line with a string of aggressive military actions ordered by former U.S. President Donald Trump against drug cartels in the area. In early August, Trump signed a secret directive permitting military action, marking a significant escalation in U.S. involvement in Latin America. He has previously referred to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as a “narco-terrorist” fugitive. To strengthen the pursuit, he offered a $50 million bounty on his head and did so publicly.
The mood soon heated up after Trump sent marines and warships to Venezuela’s Caribbean coast. His administration soon ordered at least four deadly strikes on vessels suspected of drug smuggling. In September, this cruel move resulted in the deaths of at least 21 people. Under international humanitarian law, Trump has described this operation as a “non-international armed conflict” against drug cartels, declaring cartel members to be “unlawful combatants.” This designation is not one to take lightly. It fundamentally alters the legal framework that governs U.S. relations with these entities.
Analysts have been abuzz over Trump’s proposed counter-narcotics campaign. They raise the concern that it may be a pretext for his real end game—regime change in Venezuela, which his Administration has so far failed to accomplish despite earlier efforts via a “maximum pressure” campaign to remove Maduro from power. The military asset deployments of the last few months have apparently raised the pressure on Maduro to new heights.
“What Trump did to Iran was a wake-up call to the people in government here.” – Phil Gunson
In answer to these provocations, the Venezuelan government and their local and global supporters have alternated between defiantly escalating and urging peaceful resistance. Maduro even invited Trump personally to different types of talks. He most famously emphasized the need to cultivate understanding between peoples across the hemisphere, rather than seeking military conflict.
“I respectfully invite you, President, to promote peace through constructive dialogue and mutual understanding throughout the hemisphere.” – Nicolás Maduro
Supporters of the Venezuelan opposition, including Leopoldo López, expressed preparedness to accept any outcome that would lead to a democratic transition. That type of openness would certainly coincide with Trump’s interests in Venezuela. It is understandable that people across the country are deeply skeptical of U.S. intentions. They are worried that foreign involvement could exacerbate the situation, resulting in more instability.
Amelia Contreras, a local resident, voiced her concerns over U.S. involvement, stating, “We don’t want anyone coming along and interfering here – we won’t allow it.” Similarly, Carmen Meléndez remarked, “They think they’re the owners of the world,” suggesting a sentiment among Venezuelans that external military actions may be unwelcome.
A handful of Venezuelan opposition leaders have openly praised Trump’s approach to the Maduro dictatorship. In her declaration of full support for the plan, María Corina Machado called for dismantling what she described to the media as a “criminal structure.” Her endorsement embodies a current of opinion in Venezuela that believes U.S. intervention would be a positive and welcome act in the process of restoring democracy.
The costs of a military intervention in Venezuela would be high. Analysts like Robert Evan Ellis highlight the complexities involved in escalating actions from air strikes to a full-scale military campaign. “You don’t just unnecessarily jump from blowing up a couple of ships to pulling the trigger on a major air-land campaign,” he cautioned, indicating that such decisions would require careful consideration and strategic planning.
Now, the Venezuelan government’s response has heated up too. Meléndez warned that if the U.S. were to invade, they would be met with resistance: “If they dare [to invade], we’ll be waiting for them here.” This feeling reflects a nationalistic pride that has united everyone against war, including the anti-interventionists.
Kristian Laborín, another Venezuelan citizen, reflected on the potential long-term consequences of U.S. actions: “You’d be talking about a Hundred Years’ War!” expressing concerns that prolonged conflict could ensue if tensions escalate further.
Venezuelans are skeptical, if not outright hostile, to Trump’s military gambit. There is a 50-50 chance, according to analysts, that his efforts to replace the regime will be successful as anger mounts inside the country. The combination of economic struggles and political repression under Maduro may play into the dynamics of any potential change in leadership.
Last month, Trump announced at the United Nations that his objective is to get rid of these “terrorist thugs” from power. This testimony laid out his plans in plain terms. This statement makes clear the Trump administration’s view. They personally do not view their activities as merely counter-narcotics operations, but as a deeper part of strategizing to remake governance in Latin America.