France is at a historic inflection point, dealing with protests and disorder at home and attacks abroad as the international order crumbles. With 18 months remaining in President Emmanuel Macron’s second, non-renewable term, the political scene is anything but desirable. At the beginning of his presidency, Macron inspired optimism by attempting to unite a deeply fractured nation. Today, as he meets increasing recrimination, he grits his teeth while navigating a constellation of crises endangering la République’s stability.
The good news is that the nation has deep assets, great wealth, activism, superb infrastructure and resilient institutions. A very worrisome air of chaos now pervades the environment. Whatever the original reason for such optimism, Macron believes he can still save France from its current predicament. Yet skepticism is at a premium, with critics pointing out the government’s struggle to form a parliamentary majority to enact crucial budgets.
To get a sense of the turbulence, consider that over the last two years, France has already appointed five ministers-presidents. Such a level of political instability is historic, even by Italy’s post-war standards. The new appointment—Sébastien Lecornu, a 39-year-old confidant of Macron—shows the government’s attempts to play stabilizer. Most observers are skeptical that the step will cause permanent change in an environment where rage among the public seems to be soaring.
France’s political turmoil has made waves with its neighbors. No one has laughed harder than some of the Italians, who have gleefully marveled at the chaos that has descended on their French neighbors. Meanwhile, Macron’s efforts to forge alliances, particularly with the left and the Socialist Party (PS), underscore his recognition of the need for collaboration in a fractious political environment.
From Nicolas Baverez to François Fillon, from Henri Guaino to Alain Minc, self-proclaimed “critics” denounce the disastrous situation of our country. He paints France as “paralysed by the chaos, impotence and debt,” underscoring the seriousness of the state of affairs. The cost of public spending is increasing dramatically. According to some forecasts, national debt may reach up to €100 billion per year by 2030. The government’s recent pension reform, which raised the retirement age to 64, has further inflamed tensions among unions and left-wing parties.
Demonstrations and a nationwide general strike have cascaded across the country. People are genuinely ticked off with the state and federal government policy and these recent reforms. Citizens are getting tired of Macron’s brand of leadership, and we see increasing anger as a result. Philippe Dessertine poignantly articulates this sentiment:
“It is like we are on a dyke. It seems solid enough. Everyone is standing on it, and they keep telling us it’s solid. But underneath, the sea is eating away, until one day it all suddenly collapses.”
Philippe Aghion asserts:
“We are not about to go under, Greece-style.”
Despite these reassurances, critics claim that Macron has indeed become the lightning rod for popular frustration. Many see him as responsible for the current state of affairs, with Baverez stating:
“Emmanuel Macron is the real target of the people’s defiance, and he bears entire responsibility for this shipwreck.”
The problems that have been a thorn in France’s side go deeper than political leadership. These issues get to the heart of societal fragility. Françoise Fressoz highlights a pervasive addiction to public spending as a longstanding method employed by successive governments to quell unrest.
“We have all become totally addicted to public spending. It’s been the method used by every government for half a century – of left and right – to put out the fires of discontent and buy social peace.”
As France navigates this tumultuous chapter, Macron’s efforts will be pivotal in determining whether he can rally support across political divides and restore faith in his administration. The months ahead will be telling. He’ll need to make good faith efforts to negotiate supply or confidence agreements with opposition parties and create stability within his minority government.