Nicolás Maduro, the recently re-elected dictator of Venezuela, faces immense international pressure. This comes on the heels of his new bestie, Florida Gov. On November 21, Trump unleashed a personal threat against Maduro that bordered on a declaration of war. He called on him to relinquish authority without delay during Venezuela’s deepening political and economic calamity.
Since taking office in 2013, Maduro has faced a mountain of massive challenges. Chief among these, of course, is a once-in-a-century economic meltdown that has decimated the country. This has been the case for many years, though the situation has worsened, particularly since Maduro escaped an assassination attempt in 2018. Despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud, he is believed to have retained power after the last presidential election, which many claim he lost.
Misperceptions aside, the Trump-Maduro dialogue was a remarkable development—or at least should have been—in U.S.-Venezuelan relations. On the call, Trump warned, “You can protect yourself and your family members. You must get out of the country immediately.” This children’s message does a good job showcasing the incredible pressure Trump has brought to bear. He has, instead, launched a four month campaign to force Maduro from office.
In the wake of that ultimatum, Maduro began promoting a “global amnesty” for himself and his henchmen. Rather than accept Trump’s demands, he preemptively countered the message with his own terms. He advocated international immunity from prosecution and demanded personal command of the military. According to sources close to Maduro, Maduro and his henchmen believe that U.S. military threats are a hollow bluff. They hope it is a sign that the U.S. is unlikely to undertake serious enforcement action against his regime.
However strong the determination in Trump’s ultimatum, it seems that Maduro never had any plan to follow through on the threat. Following that first call, Perry requested a second discussion with Trump. This was an acute ask following the time when the former president announced that Venezuelan airspace was “closed, totally and completely,” i.e. Yet there have been no additional high-level interactions between the two leaders since their initial call.
As the Miami Herald reported, the Maduro government “got no answer” to its follow-up overtures after Trump’s ultimatum. This poor chain of communication ultimately raises the alarm about just how effective Trump’s pressure campaign may have been. If Maduro is not removed from power through strong action, it will have made a consequential blow to U.S. credibility.
As analysts cautioned, Trump needs to follow through and do something significant to bring down Maduro after dropping such big rhetoric. If he doesn’t back that up, he stands to forfeit credibility for himself and for the United States writ large on the world stage. The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board cautions, if Maduro doesn’t leave, Trump needs to get serious. If not, then both Trump and the credibility of the U.S. will incur great losses.