Yet this month, the US labour market report will upend that tradition. Due to special circumstances, it will be releasing on a Tuesday rather than the standard Friday. That report is scheduled to come out today. Most commentators are looking for it to confirm that the US economy added around 50,000 jobs in November, a stable and modest growth approach.
As a reminder, economists had predicted a 0.3% rise in average hourly wages over that same period from October to October. At the same time, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. These numbers are especially fraught given it follows the longest federal government shutdown in US history. This most recent federal shutdown certainly hurt job creation as well as the nation’s economic performance during that period.
The labour market report is a key bellwether of broader economic health. It does provide immensely useful information on employment change and wage progression. This month’s departure from our typical Friday release date is a testament to the chaotic and uncertain new normal we find ourselves living in.
“Today is finally the day. And fittingly for this year, in which everything seems to be different and somewhat chaotic, the US labour market report, which is normally always released on a Friday, will be published today on a Tuesday.” – Commerzbank
The expected 50,000 new jobs indicate a further trend of modest growth in the labour market. Even with the additional complication of the recent government shutdown, analysts predict very minor dips in unemployment over the coming months. This stability across these metrics indicates that despite the pace of job growth being relatively slow, job growth is not at a standstill.
Even the most arid of labour market economists stress that expectations for this labour market report should be low. In short, experts advise, don’t count on anything being very clear at all. Although the pace of job growth is improving, it is still well below what’s needed and doesn’t tell us much about the overall economy.