The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be releasing a new set of CPI figures for November in just a couple weeks. This report will provide important context on inflation’s evolving dynamics. That expected publication was delayed by a disruption introduced by the recent government shutdown. This shutdown stopped data collection for the October CPI, leaving analysts without important economic indicators that would have come from that month.
Averaging the three major indexes and adjusting for monthly seasonality, we get preliminary estimates of 0.45% overall CPI increase between Sept and Nov. All of this means collection rates for the November indices will be a bit lower. Nonetheless, the year-over-year rate of change in headline CPI will remain firmly anchored around 3.0%. This consistency is a signal of a generally stable inflation environment as the economy works through a variety of shocks and challenges.
The past two months have seen small gains in energy inflation, part of a general trend toward leveling off inflation. On the flip side, food price growth is expected to have cooled, signaling an abatement in the hit consumers take on necessities like groceries. Meanwhile, commodity prices have started to come down, a sign that supply and demand dynamics are shifting back in favor of the market.
Experts caution that lingering effects from tariffs may lead to a further uptick in goods inflation in the coming months. As companies review their pricing plans in early 2024, consumers are likely to feel the impact with price increases and decreases across different industries. While the expected increase in goods inflation suggests reversals will be widely felt, some places may level off. Other areas may see shifts in price, influenced by outside forces.
With that key data missing until October, economists will turn their attention elsewhere. They will focus on the two-month percentage change as a short-term indicator of inflation. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to fall to 2.9%. With this change, the precedent has been set to accommodate for current ongoing shifts in consumer behavior and market conditions.
Overall inflation is expected to remain close to 3.0% through mid-2026, with quarterly variation. Moreover, this trend will deeply impact consumer and business economic choices.