The suggestion is alarming Former President Donald Trump has made his warning to Mexico explicit and loud. He threatened to deliver a 5% tariff on the country if it does not release 200,000 acre-feet of water from the Rio Grande by December 31. This escalation in rhetoric comes as Trump discusses the critical issue of water resources during a roundtable focused on American agriculture.
The Rio Grande’s water is critical to agriculture in Texas and sister border states. This vital resource is currently at the center of the fiercest fighting. Under a treaty established in 1944, Mexico is obligated to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the US. This requirement only happens once every five years. Both nations have faced challenges. Climate change, overconsumption, and mismanagement have already pushed the Rio Grande beyond the brink, increasing tensions around the already contentious distribution of water.
Trump pointed out the time sensitive nature of the situation, explaining that Mexico needs to let out the water “shortly after” Dec 31. He recognized the effect that this lack of labor has on our farmers at home.
“As of now, Mexico is not responding, and it is very unfair to our U.S. Farmers who deserve this much needed water,” – Donald Trump
After the roundtable discussion, Trump went to work by formally authorizing documentation. He clarified that the 5% tariff would go into effect if Mexico does not adhere to this release of water. This expected tariff is another vexed factor in the ongoing buildup of tensions between the two countries. This deepens the animosity in their increasingly bitter war for agricultural funding resources.
The troublesome issue has received a lot of attention from U.S. lawmakers, too. In May 2024, ten members of Congress urged their colleagues to consider withholding financial assistance from Mexico until it fulfills its water obligations. This call for action is an indication of how dire the situation is and what that means for the future of American agriculture.
“That is why I have authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, IMMEDIATELY,” – Donald Trump
In light of these pressures, Mexico has pointed to its own experience with drought in the past years which have dramatically restricted their access to water. The Mexican economy ministry did not return requests for comment on Trump’s threats.
For the agricultural industry in Texas, the effects have already been nothing short of disastrous with respect to water shortages. The state’s última caña sugar processing mill has closed its doors. This is a good reminder of the stark harm that lack of access to water can bring.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins touted that Mexico had committed to increase its water deliveries to Texas. This bipartisan deal came together in April. Opposition to the deal is growing. As you might imagine, both countries have their own difficulties in undertaking the climate and resource management transitions.
The U.S. federal government has begun to address long-standing trade and tariff-related challenges. They previously budgeted $12 billion in economic relief to cover farmers harmed by recent trade wars, including $11 billion that would literally come straight from the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program. This strategic funding will deliver immediate relief for farmers facing the dual challenges of extreme water shortages and economic distress.
This relatively quiet water conflict will shape the landscape of U.S. agriculture and U.S.-Mexico diplomatic relations for years to come.