In an extraordinary diplomatic gesture, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, announced that Moscow is prepared to sign legally binding documents undertaking not to attack the European Union (EU) or NATO, he said. Ryabkov’s comments came in a story by the state RIA Novosti news agency. This all comes with the backdrop of anger and discontent resulting from a spate of high-profile assassinations inside Russia itself.
The announcement comes on the heels of an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Fanil Sarvarov, one of Russia’s top generals. He was assassinated in a car bomb in southern Moscow. Sarvarov’s killing is the third such assassination of a senior Russian official this year. This escalated violence deeply threatens the prospects of internal security and an avoidable external war. The horrific killings of the past few weeks have prompted debate about the Kremlin’s internal stability and what it may mean for Moscow’s foreign engagements.
What’s different about the recent wave of violence is how shocking the incidents have been. Perhaps the most high profile example is the death of Darya Dugina, daughter of pro-war ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, by car bomb in August 2022. In late December 2024, a bomb placed in an electric scooter exploded beneath Lt Gen Igor Kirillov’s apartment building. The explosion tragically took the life of the head of Russia’s military nuclear, biological and chemical protection forces. Just one day before his death, Kirillov was publicly charged with war crimes by the country of Ukraine.
His assassination, Vladimir Putin called a “major blunder” committed by Russia’s security agencies. This assertion underscores his lofty frustration and criticism over the lack of accountability on the state of domestic security.
In the context of these events, Ryabkov’s reassurance aims to mitigate fears regarding Russia’s military intentions towards Europe and NATO.
“As long as the illegal actions by the Russian Federation continue to violate fundamental rules of international law, including, in particular, the prohibition on the use of force, it is appropriate to maintain in force all the measures imposed by the EU and to take additional measures if necessary.” – EU Council statement
The EU Council now formalized a decision to overall again extend economic sanctions against Russia. These sanctions have just been extended for another six months, set to expire on July 31, 2026. The sanctions prohibit importing or otherwise transferring seaborne crude oil. Furthermore, they are taking aim at specific petroleum product imports from Russia to the EU. The long-term sanctions demonstrate the EU’s willingness to expect Russia to answer for its transgressions as geopolitical tensions continue to rise.
In retaliation to the sanctions, Russia has sued Euroclear in a Moscow court. They plan to reclaim a significant share of their assets in the EU, which are valued at €210 billion. This decision highlights growing economic pressures on Russia from international sanctions.
Environmental and geopolitical dynamics are changing at breakneck speed. Specifically, China has recently slapped anti-dumping duties of as much as 42.7% on some dairy imports from the EU. The EU has responded by denouncing this move as “unjustified,” blowing trade relations between China and Europe even further apart.
Second, the United States is in a strong position to provide NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine. This decision is intended to help build towards a possible ceasefire in the continued conflict with Russia. American officials have suggested these guarantees would be in line with the demands of Ukraine’s President and NATO European allies’ interlocutors. They are looking for “Article 5-like” assurances from European US.
As military confrontations persist, Russia is reportedly making steady but gradual advances in the Donbas region, which encompasses the heavily industrialized areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. The reality on the ground is still very much in flux, with active conflict between the two sides and continued hostilities by both.