Vladimir Putin has pledged repeatedly and unequivocally that he will pursue military operations in Ukraine indefinitely. He will not back down until a detailed deal is in place to address what he terms the “root causes” of the strife. This one sentence reveals the true extent of his obstinacy on the continuing war—which, by all accounts, he has always considered a key part of his legacy. As the international community holds Russia accountable, sanctions are getting stricter. This mounting pressure only appears to embolden Putin’s determination, underscoring the complicated interplay between geopolitical strategy and domestic political vulnerability.
In recent months, Putin has been making the case that time is on his side with renewed vigor. He’s adamant that the United States, in time, will “come to their senses.” It is this belief that pushes him to continue fighting on. He argues that regular Russians should be made to bear the economic costs of the war. No amount of economic hardship will compel him to bring the war to an end. He wants that to be the price we all pay,” said one former senior Russian official.
Recognizing the possible effects sanctions on Russia might have in crippling its economy Putin responded to reporters when he said, “some losses are inevitable.” He seems prepared to absorb these expenses. He feels they are a reasonable sacrifice for what he considers the premier important national interest. This sentiment was echoed by Alexander Gabuev, who noted, “The Kremlin thinks they are winning the war and that Ukraine is losing, slowly but steadily.”
So far, Putin’s administration has issued sanctions that were not forecasted. These targeted sectors are specifically aimed at two of Russia’s largest oil producers and roughly thirty of their subsidiaries. Taken together, these measures indicate the first clear signs of a crack in Russia’s economic façade and of the effects of the sustained international pressure at play. Despite this, Putin remains undeterred in his pursuit of full control over Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, limits on Ukraine’s armed forces, and a voice in Ukraine’s domestic affairs.
Putin’s connections with former U.S. President Donald Trump have raised eyebrows. President Vladimir Putin supposedly made Trump sit through a one-hour history lesson at their first meeting in Anchorage. Some experts view this as a push for hegemony. Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy analyst close to the Kremlin, remarked, “Putin, who appears to be running a kind of personal tactical game with Trump, has a knack for picking just the right moments to undercut our opponents’ efforts and inject new momentum into the talks.”
Yet throughout these meetings, Trump reportedly complained that he was getting nowhere substantive with Putin. “Every time I speak with Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they don’t go anywhere,” Trump stated. This expression of shared frustration speaks to the deeper realities of diplomatic relationships and working to bridge differences.
Putin’s willingness to dig in and accept the widespread economic pain that will come from a long, drawn-out war has left many analysts worried. “For Moscow, stopping the war now would mean giving up its main leverage over Trump,” Gabuev emphasized. This view demonstrates how much the conflict has become embedded with greater geopolitical tensions and individual relationships between leaders.
Recent chats are filled with skepticism over any possible thaw in relations, too. As Lukyanov lamented, “we are operating in an echo chamber.” He implied that it would be unlikely to achieve results by attempting to pressure Putin into making some concessions. Furthermore, these same analysts argue that even if Putin was ready to negotiate, he would do so because he would not want to look weak when forced.
Though the fighting drags on and sanctions deepen, Putin’s regime refuses to budge from its goals. The Kremlin’s outsize confidence stems from the belief that Ukraine will face considerable difficulties in the next year. This notion propels their conviction to further military actions.