The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its latest update on the health of the US labor market on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report comes at a particularly important time. Economists have a wide range of estimates as to what the final 2025 jobs report will look like. It has been a tough year, to say the least, particularly following President Donald Trump’s highly protectionist national tariff declaration in April. This decision increased national uncertainty and caused a chill on hiring plans across the country.
To say that the labor market has undergone tremendous changes since that turning point would be quite the understatement. A great deal of uncertainty has been added by shifting immigration patterns and businesses racing to find artificial intelligence answers. These influences have combined to produce subpar employment rebounds, with employers reporting intentions to lay off – 35,553 in December, for instance.
Even with these layoffs, hiring announcements increased – reaching the highest level for a December since 2022. The continuing decline in net hiring activity is troubling. It recently fell to its lowest level in more than 10 years excluding the market distorting impact of the pandemic. Those are bad enough, but this year’s hiring rates are even more alarming. They mimic the worst months we’ve seen away from a recession since 2003.
The numbers speak for themselves. As a result, our experts project that total job gains for 2025 will only total 710,000. This figure is a paltry increase compared to the gains experienced in 2010, immediately following the Great Recession. The labor market has turned into an “exclusive club,” one in which people need to wait months to find a job. At the same time, US employers were actively looking for fewer workers in November, a sign of increased caution starting to spread across the job market.
Until now the healthcare and leisure sectors have been notable bright spots. They made up a striking 84% of all job growth between January and November of 2025.
“Health services is an expensive type of service for most consumers; leisure and hospitality [spending] is a discretionary service for all consumers.” – Nela Richardson
Richardson noted that these sectors are an example of a K-shaped economy in which it is the higher-income consumers that are fueling the growth of spending.
A few economists are cautiously optimistic about the direction of the job market. David Michael Tinsley noted that while the labor market remains in a low-hire or low-fire mode, data suggests that “the worst of the slowdown could be behind us.”
“While the labor market still is arguably in a low-hire or low-fire mode, it does look – in our data – as though the worst of the slowdown could be behind us.” – David Michael Tinsley
With Friday’s report approaching, the anticipation grows. Today’s release exposes a much more brittle job market, underscoring the ongoing plight that both employers and workers experience in today’s precarious economy.