To counter Japan’s actions, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a new, escalating round of restrictions on exports to Japan, especially in the area of dual-use items. These dual-use items are broadly defined to include goods, technologies, and services that can be used for both civil and military applications. This move has created an uproar in Japan. Their biggest concern is access to key resources, and in particular, rare earths, which are essential for manufacturing everything from high-tech products to advanced weapons systems.
The MoC, headquartered in Beijing, has indeed publicly affirmed that it is hardening export controls. What those restrictions are exactly still remains to be seen. As the world’s largest producer of rare earths by far, China has considerable power over the market. Against that backdrop, the situation has exacerbated fears in Tokyo over whether Japan will be able to guarantee an uninterrupted supply of these precious substances.
Rare earths are indispensable in high-tech applications, such as electronics, renewable energy technologies, and defense systems. Japan relies on China as a key supplier for critical raw materials. As a result, this dependency has raised fears that increased Chinese restrictions would break fragile supply chains, damaging industries dependent on rare earths. The lack of clarity on what such export controls might look like has only increased these fears among Japanese policymakers and industry leaders.
Japan’s pro-rare earth bureaucracies have been sending signals that they still care about access, even with today’s radically restructured landscape. Officials are urgently trying to find new sources of supply and obtain new supplies, including by diversifying their routes of import. This strategy is meant to decrease the United States’ reliance on China and lessen the peril linked with possible future Chinese export bans.
The increasing fear for access to rare earths goes far beyond Japan. Most importantly, it underscores a massive and permanent shift in global supply chain dynamics. Countries that have long been dependent on particular resources are coming to understand the value of strategic diversification. Japan’s experience is a stark warning of why global uncertainties can impact resource access and economic security.