Central European countries are currently doing a self-critique on their economic situation and if they are meeting public debt to GDP ratios. They’re reflecting on their policy on joining the euro. Poland and Romania have enjoyed a successful streak of keeping their threshold at 60%. In the meantime, Czechia checked all the magic convergence criteria boxes to adopt the euro. At the same time, we’re seeing a dramatic public mood shift toward favoring euro adoption in Hungary, as economic fortunes turn on a dime across the region.
Poland’s Economic Challenges and Compliance
Poland frequently ranks high in terms of successful compliance with the limit on public debt-to-GDP of 60%. Though this is largely a positive compliance, the country is still under duress with regard to its trade balance. In November, Poland was in the negative trade balance of PLN 1,087 million. That means that on net, imports exceeded exports over that period. This growing deficit is indicative of larger trends affecting the Polish economy on all fronts.
Moreover, Poland posted a PLN 460 million fiscal deficit for November. These figures indicate further vulnerabilities in the Polish economy that will be confronting the policymakers in Warsaw as they go ahead. Poland’s central bank, the Narodowy Bank Polski, will be announcing its interest rate decision next week in January. Analysts are almost universally expecting the rate to hold steady at the current level of 4%. This decision will have huge implications for economic forecasting and planning.
Czechia’s Strong Economic Position
Of all its Central European peers, Czechia is the only country to currently meet all convergence criteria required for adopting the euro. The country has shown macroeconomic stability with inflation officially set at 2.1% y/y, strong management of price growth. Czechia’s inflation rate is lower than some euro area member states, which gives Czechia some political standing in euro adoption debates.
Additionally, Czechia’s current account isn’t just in the red, it actually logged a CZK 8.16 billion surplus in November, emphasizing its strong economic performance even more. Positive inflation rate and strong current account balance strengthen the argument for euro adoption. These indicators are essential for ultimately maintaining economic stability, and subsequently, confidence in the currency.
Hungary and Romania’s Path Towards Fiscal Stability
In December, the country’s inflation rate fell to 3.3% year-on-year. This amendment may have a big impact on public opinion about their joining the euro. Notably, Hungary has the highest share of positive responses concerning the consequences of adopting the euro among Central European countries. The vast majority of those respondents wish to see Hungary join the euro as soon as possible. As these shifting public attitudes force decisionmakers to respond, they may drive major policy shifts in years to come.
Meanwhile, Romania’s Treasury chief, Nanu, confirmed that the country’s budget deficit was below 8.4% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to decline to approximately 6.5% of GDP in 2026. These numbers indicate that Romania is serious about fiscal discipline and that it is readying itself for tougher economic reforms.
Bulgaria on course to adopt the euro by January 2026. This decision highlights the broader trends of currency adoption taking place throughout Central Europe. While Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania maintain their own currencies as EU Member States, Bulgaria’s move may prompt further discussions on euro adoption among its neighbors.