The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is poised to provide critical insights into the state of the U.S. manufacturing sector when it releases its next report on November 21, 2025, at 14:45 (Preliminary). As a result, the PMI serves as a bellwether, or monthly indicator, of business activity. It’s a window into the health and trends from the front lines of the manufacturing sector. For the manufacturing PMI, analysts are looking for a consensus reading of 52. While that indicates the sector is still expanding, it’s down slightly from last month’s 52.5, and the growth rate is slowing.
All economists and policymakers use the PMI because doing so gives them extremely useful information. Most significantly, it predicts shifts in key economic variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, jobs, and inflation. A number greater than 50 means that the manufacturing economy is growing. This is usually considered bullish for the U.S. Dollar (USD). On the other hand, any print below 50 is likely to indicate contraction and would therefore be negative for the currency.
Understanding the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, released on the first business day of each month. It serves as one of the most important barometers for assessing economic conditions in the manufacturing industry. It includes the answers of purchasing managers from inward to outward industries, so it gives you a good complete picture of the level of economic activity.
This index provides a deeper look. It plays a key role in shaping the detection of trends that could have larger implications on national economic indicators, including recessions. By measuring the health of the manufacturing sector—including things such as new orders, production, and employment—the PMI equips analysts to forecast short-term economic activity.
The value of this index is in its use as an early indicator of shifting trends. For instance, if the PMI shows an upward trajectory, it can lead to expectations of increased GDP growth and job creation. Conversely, a falling PMI may just be the impetus to raise worries about recessionary headwinds.
The Upcoming Release and Its Implications
The preliminary estimate of the PMI is scheduled to be released on November 21. This report will be our first look at the overall health of the manufacturing sector. Market participants will be watching this release like hawks especially in light of the consensus forecast calling for a 52 reading. This is a 0.9 point decrease from last month but still shows expansion.
Besides being a key economic bellwether, the PMI’s reported results can move financial markets dramatically. A reading above 50 typically raises expectations, which tends to increase support for the U.S. Dollar. Conversely, a reading of below 50 can increase the level of uncertainty and produce negative sentiment around the currency.
Look for a preliminary estimate in the coming days. Then, in about two weeks after that, we’ll release a final revision that integrates all the new data we’ve heard. These types of revisions can be so prevalent that they change market perceptions, expectations and narratives drastically.
Broader Economic Context
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI does not exist in isolation. It is part of a broader framework that includes various economic indicators. The Composite PMI, an index that combines both manufacturing and service sectors, offers an even more worrisome picture on the long-term economic health.
Investors are already taking a hard look at these numbers. They are taking into account outside forces, such as global supply chain interruptions, inflationary pressures and geopolitical events. Together, these factors can affect the level of manufacturing activity occurring and the results of PMI readings.
This is the release that everyone on Wall Street and in financial markets will be watching closely. It will better inform businesses and policymakers to make more strategic decisions. By demystifying the intricacies of the PMI, stakeholders can better position themselves to face unforeseen challenges while informing areas of potential growth.