Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida remain top destinations for domestic migration in the United States. However, these states have witnessed a notable decline in the number of new residents for the year ending July 1, 2024. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, derived from the American Community Survey and anonymized IRS address changes, highlight this shift in migration patterns.
Florida, once a real estate hotspot in 2021 and 2022, has experienced a cooling trend over the past two years. The state saw its influx of residents drop dramatically from 314,467 to just 85,267 between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024. Texas mirrored this change with an influx of 85,267 residents during the same period. North Carolina and South Carolina saw slightly lower numbers, with 82,288 and 68,043 new residents respectively.
Several factors contribute to this decline in domestic migration. Elevated 30-year mortgage rates, which have remained above 6% for the year ending July 1, 2024, have discouraged both buyers and sellers from making significant moves. This economic pressure is compounded by a decades-long trend of fewer people moving, influenced by an aging population, delayed life milestones such as marriage, and rising home prices that have doubled relative to incomes since 1985.
The effects of these trends are evident in other states as well. California's net loss of residents decreased significantly from 344,029 to 239,575 between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024. Similarly, New York saw its net loss fall from 176,893 residents to 120,917 over the same period. This indicates that states with historically high net losses are experiencing a slowdown in outbound migration.
Interestingly, Nevada and Idaho stand out as anomalies among the top 15 states for domestic migration. These states are the only ones to report an increase in incoming residents compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, migration to states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia was halved or more when compared with figures from the previous year.