In a move that has escalated tensions in the Middle East, Egypt and Jordan have vehemently rejected a proposal from the United States to assume "ownership" of a demolition site, transforming it into a Middle Eastern "riviera." This proposal, put forth by the US administration, has sparked international outrage and heightened concerns over potential demographic and economic instability in the region. Jordan, with a large Palestinian-origin population, and Egypt, already grappling with economic challenges, find themselves in a precarious position as they navigate the complexities of this proposal.
The leaders of Jordan and Egypt, King Abdullah II and President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, are preparing to travel to Washington. Their mission is clear: to persuade President Trump to reconsider the contentious plan. Jordan's economy has been significantly weakened by ongoing conflicts, with public services stretched thin. The prospect of accepting large numbers of Palestinians from Gaza has raised alarms over potential demographic changes and further economic strain.
Jordan maintains a peace treaty with Israel and enjoys close military and economic ties with the United States. However, the proposed plan threatens to destabilize these delicate relationships. Alia Brahimi noted the potential political calamity for leaders like King Abdullah of Jordan, emphasizing the impossibility for Arab leaders to be complicit in what could be perceived as ethnic cleansing.
"As with King Abdullah of Jordan, there’s the potential for political calamity too, in that neither Arab leader can afford to be complicit in the systematic ethnic cleansing of Palestine." – Alia Brahimi
The situation is equally complex for Egypt, a country that relies heavily on financial aid from Washington. This leverage gives the US significant influence over Egyptian policy. Despite this dependency, Egypt has firmly refused to allow Palestinians in Gaza to seek refuge within its borders during the ongoing conflict. The fear of a massive and destabilizing influx remains a critical concern for Egyptian officials.
The proposal's implications extend beyond immediate political considerations. The Nakba, or displacement of 1948, remains a vivid memory for the Arab world. The fear of repeating such trauma is palpable among those who have already endured significant hardship.
“It would be a repeat trauma of an already traumatised people.” – Katrina Sammour
Jordanian officials have repeatedly warned about the consequences of displacing Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. The role and future of Palestinians in Jordan are politically sensitive issues that could ignite unrest if mishandled.
“The questions of who counts as Jordanian and what it means to be Jordanian are highly combustible.” – Alia Brahimi
Neil Quilliam highlighted fears that Israeli policies could lead to real population transfers, further destabilizing the region.
“They are terrified that an Israeli policy of population transfer will actually become real.” – Neil Quilliam
President Trump's vision, as articulated in his own words, seems at odds with the apprehensions expressed by regional leaders and citizens alike.
“open their hearts [to] give us the kind of land that we need to get this done and people can live in harmony and in peace.” – Donald Trump
Despite these assurances, the proposal underscores the complex web of alliances and dependencies. Trump's focus on King Abdullah's ties to Israel and dependence on the US adds another layer of tension.
“So there’s the demographic issue, but also the fact that Trump is drawing attention to King Abdullah’s ties to Israel and his alliance with and dependence on the US.” – Alia Brahimi
Both countries face significant internal challenges. Security services in Egypt struggle to contain public discontent, fearing that new instability could spark another mass protest movement. Meanwhile, Jordan's internal dynamics surrounding identity and national belonging remain fraught with tension.
“Both matters have the very real potential to destabilise the Jordanian monarchy.” – Alia Brahimi