In a world where China is the largest trading partner for over 120 countries, recent geopolitical shifts present new challenges and opportunities. The assertiveness of China in the South China Sea has alarmed the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the Philippines. Meanwhile, the longstanding issue of Taiwan continues to strain US-China relations, with Beijing condemning any perception of US support for Taipei. Amidst this complex backdrop, President Xi Jinping may see an opportunity amidst the uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's policies.
China has been strengthening its trade agreements across Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia, seeking to fill the void left by the US withdrawal from global partnerships. With President Donald Trump freezing all US foreign assistance and the US exiting the World Health Organization (WHO), China has pledged additional funds to the organization, potentially positioning itself as a leader in global governance. The US's departure from international cooperation sends a strong signal to the Global South and OECD nations that the country is not prioritizing international partnership and collaboration.
"The combination of tariffs on major trade partners and freezing of foreign assistance sends a message to the Global South and OECD alike that the US is not interested in international partnership, collaboration." – John Delury
As tensions rise, trade conflicts escalate between the US and China. The US has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to vow retaliation. Similarly, Canada and Mexico have also promised to retaliate against US tariffs, with Canada imposing a 25% levy on over $100 billion of American goods. The trade war is brewing with no signs of reconciliation in sight.
"Not afraid of a trade war." – Beijing (declared in 2018)
While the Trump administration has threatened drastic measures like annexing Canada or buying Greenland, these moves may weaken Washington's ability to respond effectively to Chinese aggression. In contrast, China's strategy appears more measured and forward-looking. President Xi's ambition for China to lead an alternative world order is no secret, with efforts to upend the American-led global order of the past fifty years gaining momentum.
"President Xi's consistent message of 'win-win' globalisation takes on a whole new meaning as America retreats from the world." – John Delury
Amidst this geopolitical shift, a trilateral relationship among Australia, Japan, and South Korea is gathering momentum. This alliance is motivated by concerns over a second Trump administration and its impact on global affairs. While many US allies and partners in the Pacific region have reasons to collaborate with Beijing, they also harbor apprehensions about China's intentions.
"Many US allies and partners, especially in the Pacific, have a reason to work with Beijing, but they also have reasons to be wary." – Chong Ja Ian
The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration provides Beijing with an opportunity to expand its influence. China's willingness to meet halfway in negotiations with the US underscores its strategic priorities.
"Meet China halfway." – Beijing (urged the US to talk)
However, some experts remain cautious about whether this uncertainty truly benefits China on a strategic level.
"Whether it really confers Beijing a key advantage – of that I'm a little less sure." – Chong Ja Ian
Despite these uncertainties, it is evident that Beijing will continue to leverage any deterioration in US leadership and credibility for its advantage.
"From the perspective of US-China strategic competition, a deterioration of US leadership and credibility will benefit China." – Yun Sun
President Xi Jinping's vision for China's role on the global stage has never been clearer. As America embraces an isolationist stance, China seeks opportunities to assert its leadership in an evolving world order.
"Trump's America-first policy will bring challenges and threats to almost all countries in the world." – Yun Sun