An Azerbaijan Airlines plane tragically crashed on December 25 near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulting in the death of all 38 passengers on board. The aircraft had rerouted across the Caspian Sea from southern Russia. Azerbaijan officials claim that Russian air defenses mistakenly shot down the plane, a charge Moscow has firmly denied. This incident has sparked tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia, with Baku accusing Moscow of attempting to cover up the details of the crash.
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has publicly accused Russia of accidentally shooting down the plane. He expressed "surprise, regret, and rightful indignation" at Russia's handling of the situation, which Azerbaijan alleges involves efforts to "hush up" the incident. The Kremlin, however, insists it is premature to draw any conclusions about the cause of the crash.
"We would have expected Russia to publicly take responsibility for shooting down the plane and compensate the victims." – A source in the Azerbaijani foreign policy establishment
The crash has strained relations between the two nations, which had been improving economically. Azerbaijan has become an essential transit hub for Russia, but recent actions by Baku suggest a willingness to challenge Moscow. This assertiveness is partly buoyed by Azerbaijan's 2023 victory over Armenia and its increasing economic gains from Europe's shift away from Russian energy. The European Union's reliance on Azerbaijan for energy supplies has emboldened Baku's stance against Moscow.
In addition to the crash dispute, Azerbaijan has sent non-military aid to Ukraine, further complicating relations with Russia. The delivery underscores Baku's broader geopolitical realignment, as it distances itself from Moscow. Azerbaijan has also ordered the closure of the Russian House cultural center in Baku, escalating diplomatic tensions.
Western experts have previously suggested that the aircraft was likely targeted by Russian forces. A statement by the APA news agency indicated that evidence is being gathered for a potential international court appeal.
"Facts and evidence are being collected, and preparations are under way to appeal to an international court" – APA news agency
"The Russian side intends to create a 'Malaysia Boeing-2' situation" – APA news agency
A source within Azerbaijan's foreign policy circles remarked on Russia's dismissive approach to the incident.
"Instead, Russia just ignores the crash, hoping it would go away. It is condescending, they are looking down on us" – A source within Azerbaijan’s foreign policy establishment
Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst with ties to the Kremlin, acknowledged that Azerbaijan is dissatisfied with Russia's response.
"Azerbaijan is not entirely satisfied with the response of the Russian authorities to the plane crash. The fact is, it is absolutely clear that the plane was shot down by Russian air defences – by mistake, of course – but still shot down" – Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst close to the Kremlin
Markov suggested that an apology from Russia could ease tensions.
"If Russia apologises, Azerbaijan will gladly put the issue to rest" – Sergei Markov, a Russian political analyst close to the Kremlin
Azerbaijan's increasingly bold stance reflects its growing confidence on the international stage. This shift is also evident in Armenia's recent pivot away from Russia, as it became the first nation to exit the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), opting instead for support from Western nations and Iran.