The conflict in Ukraine remains a critical issue as diplomatic tensions escalate over the possibility of peace negotiations without Ukraine's involvement. The European Union's chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, has made it clear that any deal excluding Ukraine would be met with resistance. As Kallas stated, "the Ukrainians will resist and we will support them." This sentiment underscores the unwavering support from Europe, even as uncertainty looms over the war's resolution.
Russia's recent drone strikes on Moldova and NATO member Romania have intensified concerns. Moldova and Romania summoned Russia's ambassadors following these incursions, which saw two drones crashing in Moldovan fields and fragments discovered in a third location. Romania's radar systems identified an aerial target violating its airspace, leading to searchers uncovering drone fragments. Two drones carrying explosives were destroyed on impact in Romania, escalating the international response.
The Ukrainian air force reported shooting down 85 out of 140 Russian drones, with 52 failing to reach their targets due to electronic countermeasures. Despite these defenses, Russia continues to target port infrastructure in Ukraine's southern regions, close to the borders of Romania and Moldova.
Kaja Kallas emphasized the need for a united front, stating, "You need the Europeans, you need the Ukrainians," highlighting Europe's pivotal role in any potential resolution. However, former U.S. President Donald Trump's stance complicates matters, as he does not view Ukraine as an equal party in negotiations. This perspective contributes to the uncertainty surrounding the war's end.
On the Russian side, a source within the Russian foreign policy establishment told Pjotr Sauer that "Putin has won the first round" of negotiations. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected any "dictated peace," asserting that Ukraine will uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Scholz cautioned that "a Russian victory or a Ukrainian collapse will not lead to peace – on the contrary … This would put peace and stability in Europe at risk, far beyond Ukraine."
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concerns over leaving peace negotiations solely in the hands of Trump and Putin. He stressed that Ukraine would not accept any deal made without its participation. Recent reports indicate Ukraine is holding a third of the territory it initially captured during a surprise offensive in Russia's western Kursk region, down from previous claims of 1,400 square kilometers.
The situation highlights the complexities of international diplomacy and the steadfast resolve of Ukraine and its allies. As Kallas pointed out, "If Ukraine decides to resist, Europe will back its principles," even if that means standing firm without U.S. support. She acknowledged that "yes, we are 20% less if the US decides to withdraw, but still, Ukraine will defend the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity."
Romania's reaction to Russia's drone incursions further exemplifies the growing tensions. Bucharest expressed concern over the violations of its airspace, reinforcing the message that such actions will not go unchallenged.