The global commodities market is witnessing notable shifts as stock estimates for key agricultural commodities like corn and soybeans show a decline, while speculative positions in energy and metals display dynamic changes. Corn ending stocks are projected to dip slightly from 293.3 million tonnes in January to 292.8 million tonnes. Soybean stocks are expected to decrease from 128.4 million tonnes to 128 million tonnes. Meanwhile, speculators have reduced their net long positions in ICE Brent crude oil by 17,981 lots, bringing the total to 289,723 lots.
In the energy sector, the total rig count for oil and gas combined increased to 586 over the reporting week, up from 582 the previous week. The number of active U.S. oil rigs rose by one, reaching 480 as of February 7, 2025. However, this number remains 19 rigs fewer than the same period last year. These figures reflect ongoing adjustments in the energy market, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors.
Gold reserves held by the People's Bank of China experienced an increase, rising to 73.5 million troy ounces in January from 73.3 million in December. This rise is part of a broader trend where central banks have been aggressively purchasing gold, with last year's buying exceeding 1,000 tonnes for the third consecutive year. The fourth quarter alone saw an acceleration with purchases reaching 333 tonnes.
In the agricultural sector, money managers decreased their net short position in CBOT wheat by 20,340 lots to 90,442 lots as of February 4. Meanwhile, net speculative long positions in CBOT rose marginally by 533 lots for the fourth consecutive week, totaling 57,029 lots. These changes highlight the evolving strategies of market participants in response to fluctuating supply and demand dynamics.
In the metals market, managed money net longs in COMEX gold decreased slightly by 366 lots for the second consecutive week, standing at 230,226 lots. Speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX copper by 1,674 to reach 17,197 lots as of February 4. Silver likewise saw an increase in net longs by speculators, rising by 11,052 lots to a total of 37,370 lots as of Tuesday.
Amid these market developments, LME aluminium prices remained steady following an announcement by former President Donald Trump regarding plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports into the United States. This policy decision is expected to have significant implications for global trade dynamics and commodity prices.
The USDA is set to release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report tomorrow. Market participants will closely scrutinize this report for updates on production, consumption, and trade forecasts for major agricultural commodities.