Passenger air travel between Canada and the United States is down over 95%. Flight bookings have crashed, with U.S. innovation and climate bookings down more than 70% from March 2024 to March 2025. This steep drop comes at a time of increasing tensions in the perpetual trade war that the former President started with tariffs. The OAG, an aviation data provider, conducted an analysis comparing available bookings from March 2024 to March 2025, highlighting a severe reduction in trans-border flights.
Air Canada, which has the largest network of border crossings between the two countries, has been especially hit hard. The proportionate decrease in tickets sold from Canada to the US fell by 71% to 76%. In response, airlines cut more than 320,000 seats from their schedules through the end of October. The deepest cuts in airline capacity were made during July and August, the busiest summer travel months.
One factor that has played a big role in this steep drop is the increasing discomfort of Canadians traveling to the US. Recent high-profile cases of foreign visitors being caught in ICE’s dragnet have added to the fear and panic. As the continuing tariff war adds to uncertainty for all Canadian travelers, they are less inclined to purchase flights to the US.
First, take it from our neighbors to the north—Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is very worried. He has called the current round of tariffs a “direct attack” on Canadian workers. This political climate has undoubtedly influenced the travel habits of many Canadians who might otherwise have considered visiting the US.
The OAG’s analysis factors through October 2025, showing airlines capacity constraints Canada and the US for the foreseeable future. Passenger bookings on these routes have tanked by more than 70%. In response, airlines flying in between the two countries have to take drastic measures.