The United States is already asking for a big cut of Ukraine’s mineral resources revenue in exchange for military support. This daring action had both profound economic and geopolitical implications. To date, the White House has made a strong ask. It is demanding the immediate upfront of all future Ukraine mineral income from a number of years, with interest. This latest move makes sense given that tensions have only increased between the US and Russia since the war in Ukraine began.
The U.S. has stated its intentions to reduce Russian President Vladimir Putin’s access to oil revenues. To do this, they are threatening to impose secondary sanctions or tariffs on Russia outright. President Donald Trump has expressed his intention to impose tariffs within a month if no agreement is reached and if he determines Russia is at fault.
“if a deal isn’t made, and if I think it was Russia’s fault” – Donald Trump
For starters, major purchasers of Russian oil like China and India would be most affected if such tariffs were to be imposed. In fact, Trump has suggested using tariffs of up to 25-50% against all countries that continue to purchase Russian oil. Until now, Beijing has been careful to avoid flaunting international sanctions on Moscow to steer clear of secondary punishment. Most notably, India has skyrocketed to become the dominant buyer of all seaborne Russian crude oil. In 2024, this represented about 35% of the national total of crude imports. Moreover, since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, it has functioned as a “back door” for Russian oil exports.
Some Chinese banks have already reduced their dealings with Russian firms to evade potential exclusion from the international banking system. William Reinsch, a former high-ranking US Commerce Department official, raised the daunting task of tracing and demonstrating ownership of Russian oil. He proposed that these ambiguities might make it difficult to enforce any forthcoming sanctions.
Meanwhile, on the ground in Ukraine, Russia’s defense ministry announced control over the Zaporizhzhia settlement in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Ukraine’s military picked up major victories during its defensive defense, fighting off invasion forces. They claimed to have shot down 65 of 111 drones that Russia launched at Ukraine during a recent overnight attack. The Zaporizhzhia urban-type settlement is situated only 7 km away from the regional border of Ukraine’s central Dnipropetrovsk region.