China has intensified its military drills in the Taiwan Strait, prompting concern from the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies. The U.S. State Department condemned Beijing’s “aggressive military activities and rhetoric,” particularly regarding unannounced military exercises that resemble preparations for an invasion. These developments are a continuation of the trade war that China has been pursuing against the United States. It’s a conflict that started when Donald Trump assumed office back in January.
In recent months, the scope of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait has increased dramatically. Proponents argue that these drills more and more emulate the tactics used by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army in a real invasion. In these last few months of Trump and his cabinet members’ high activity stage as they finish figuring out their China strategy. This new approach has primarily focused on tariffs and trade negotiations, without a coordinated, comprehensive geopolitical policy.
Our closest allies in the Indo-Pacific region have every right to be, at best, on edge. They express concern over what such a grand bargain between the Trump administration and Beijing might portend. Trump has shown much willingness in market-opening deals that go beyond simple trade deals and address some very serious geopolitical issues. The devil is always in the details, and many regional leaders want some assurance about how they’ll be affected by any concessions made to Beijing.
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted that “the Chinese are watching what’s happening with the Trump administration and seeing how far they can push things.” This is a eerily revealing observation that reflects a louder, more general fear that China will take advantage of any U.S. foreign policy misstep.
Recent events fuel doubts about China’s willingness to bear risks. This even extends to the prospect of incurring civilian harm for other countries such as the Philippines. Davis noted China’s growing willingness to accept risk to personnel in the Philippines. He cited actions such as ramming vessels as the most extreme examples of this type of behavior. It can move from spraying a water cannon to a more forceful response. He went on to claim that the long-term aim of this is to scare Manila into submission to China’s interests across the region.
Recent actions by China demonstrate its intention to flex maritime power in the Indo-Pacific region, sending a clear message of supremacy to its neighbors. The Chinese research vessel Tan Suo Yi Hao recently completed a two-week voyage through international waters off Australia’s southern and western coasts. This voyage has raised the eyebrows of many regional observers, prompting curiosity and concern. At the same time, China has countered with live-fire shows of force in drills encircling Australia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, further raising tensions in an already fragile region.
That increasing militarization and increasingly provocative military exercises have been on the radar of U.S. officials. The State Department’s condemnation of Bangkok’s actions, although overdue, demonstrates a commitment – at least rhetorically – to uphold the status quo with respect to Taiwan. Domestic policy tensions Given these domestic tensions, there exist no signals that the U.S. intends to pivot its decades-old policy towards Taiwan.
Jenny Schuch-Page, another regional expert, warned against the negative effects of any grand bargain with China. “Even the prospect for a ‘grand bargain’ with China will make countries in Southeast Asia wary about how they will fare,” she stated. This sentiment highlights the deep-seated anxiety that many of our regional allies are experiencing, for their security and economic stability, with the changing geopolitical winds.
Yet Chinese officials have poured cold water on the U.S. To these American objections they call “a distortion of the facts and the truth and a disruption of China’s internal affairs,” in the words of spokesperson Liu Pengyu. This claim serves to further amplify China’s narrative surrounding its military assertiveness, painting its activities as legal exercises of its military in the realm of sovereignty.
As the situation continues to evolve, the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific allies are keenly observing how Trump’s administration will navigate this complex landscape. Former State Department officials have noted how the White House’s disjointed decision-making process has led. They compare it to a royal court, with various rival courts competing against one another for access and the final say with Trump.
Danny Russel, a former senior U.S. official, warned as tensions escalated not to take peace for granted. To that point, he stressed that we are blinding ourselves at this very moment. The national security and economic interests of the United States and our allies require certainty at this critical juncture. America’s allies are justifiably anxious for assurances about the long-term nature of their security protection. Yet even more than their Southeast Asian neighbors, they are deeply worried about Chinese growing military aggression.