A new study shows that the climate crisis is putting bananas, the world’s most popular fruit, at risk. Bananas are third most important food crop measured by gross value and fourth measured by tonnage after wheat, rice and maize. The Cavendish variety is the overwhelming majority of banana exports, but it too is under mounting threats from climate change and associated diseases. This has extremely troubling implications for farmers and consumers alike.
Bananas are an important staple food for over 400 million people in tropical and sub-tropical regions, where up to 80% of bananas produced globally are eaten locally. Over 400 million people rely on bananas for 15% to 27% of their daily calories. Latin America and the Caribbean are important actors in the international production of bananas. Together they account for more than 80% of banana exports that fill supermarket shelves from America to Europe. The region’s significance is underscored by its reliance on the Cavendish variety, chosen by fruit conglomerates for its decent flavor, hardiness, and high yield.
Yet this essential region is not without its own alarming vulnerabilities. Climate impacts through extreme weather events and slow-onset climate disasters hit Latin America and the Caribbean the hardest. According to climate change projections, by 2080 almost two-thirds of areas currently growing bananas in these regions may no longer be conducive to growing them. Climate-related changes are behind this worrisome trend. This new reality now puts banana production, which is one of the most important sources of income for many countries, at a grave risk. It threatens the world’s food security.
This is especially true for the Cavendish banana, which is already highly vulnerable to changes in the environment. These factors, including unpredictable rainfall and floods, allow for the development of oozing black leaf fungus. This terrible disease can almost completely ruin banana plants’ capacity to photosynthesize, sometimes cutting their productivity by as much as 80%. Fusarium tropical race 4, however, has become the most recent, but no less deadly, soil-borne microbe. It is already wreaking havoc by wiping out Cavendish plantations worldwide. Climatic stressors like rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns make an already rarely fortunate pathogen all the more unfortunate.
Guatemala is a microcosm of the dangers climate change has presented to banana cultivators. Farmers over there have told us how climate change has moved from just an environmental concern to an economic reality. Farmers are already feeling the impact of increasing rainfall variability and dramatically rising temperatures. They fight an uphill battle to grow healthy, resilient crops while shifting from traditional agriculture practices.
As the situation continues to develop, experts are beginning to caution that the impacts go much deeper than the losses in agriculture. The decline in banana production could lead to economic instability for farmers and communities reliant on this crop for their livelihoods. The ripple effects will continue to upend global supply chains for months. Without adequate mitigation, this disruption will result in increased costs to consumers and reduced banana supply on supermarket shelves.