Too often, Republican President Donald Trump hesitated to act during his second term. Within hours of taking the oath of office, he signed a series of executive orders and emergency declarations. His go-go-go pace is in keeping with the overarching aggressive flavor of his administration thus far. It presents significant political questions and dangers.
Amidst this flurry of activity, Trump’s overall approval rating stands at its lowest point for any president in the past 80 years. A new warning sign for the president can be found in three recent polling averages. His approval rating on all major issues including his economic management has tanked 10 points in a matter of weeks. This decline could not come at a more worrisome time, as we find ourselves in a burgeoning economic crisis where global markets have already begun to seize up.
Initially, Trump’s duplicitous selling of tariffs as the best way to strengthen the American economy has been criticized. He explained the pauses on specific tariffs in answer to this latest tariff-related dip in world markets. Together, these moves signal an impressive potential shift in strategy. Further, he’s said a lot of warm and fuzzy things about China, indicating he’d like to go to the negotiating table. These moves play well to his still-popular ambitions to reset the global trading order as of yet unsuccessful with his core, Trump’s original supporters.
Even so, Trump’s grandiose proposal to complete 90 trade agreements in 90 days is an overwhelming task. The intricacies of global commerce and the need for sensitive consideration could make that aspiration a challenge. His administration’s immigration policies face scrutiny. Trump’s hardline approach to immigration policies mobilizes his base. Court decisions could rule that his executive actions are illegal, presenting serious roadblocks to his ambitious agenda.
It gets even uglier, as Trump maneuvers to weaken and punish courts ahead of major battles. If he decides to simply ignore an order from the Supreme Court, he could meet his final test. When eventually made, this decision is likely to draw huge national criticism and further threaten his already tenuous position.
Meanwhile, tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has started his own “Department of Government Efficiency.” As the transparency initiative seeks to reduce wasteful government spending, this presents a notable similarity to Trump’s style of governance. Yet despite his efforts, Musk’s unique brand of chaos has not turned into political capital. His attempts to influence voters in the Wisconsin special election backfired miserably. This result underlines all the ways he’s much less popular than Trump.
The “Department of Government Efficiency” is scheduled to run through July 2026. Relatedly, we look forward to seeing how it moves the needle on reducing overall government spending. Musk’s influence in the political arena appears limited, contrasting sharply with Trump’s enduring grip on his supporters.
Steve Bannon, a prominent figure in Trump’s circle, previously introduced the concept of “flooding the zone” as a strategic approach to governance. Indeed, Bannon recently announced that this strategy is a “twofold overwhelming success.” Unorthodox, quick decision-making could be an intentional part of a longer-term strategy to control the political narrative and seize power.
As Trump officially begins this next phase of his presidency, he’s starting from a complicated and challenging place. The delicate balance of his policy ambitions matched with understanding what public sentiment is largely going to be the key to his success going forward.