Tariffs now represent one of the biggest headaches for companies across industries and from coast to coast. This transition is radically transforming corporate strategy and forging the economy’s future. A new survey of state legislators conducted by Duke University found a surprising takeaway. Tariffs are now the number one worry for CFOs as per this survey from the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. This policy is just one element of an ongoing, strategic campaign by the White House to level the trade playing field. It is quickly impacting capital spending and hiring plans. The survey indicates a significant drop in economic optimism among CFOs, underscoring the widespread unease caused by the ongoing trade war.
The former economic adviser to President Trump, Stephen Moore, was equally somber. He announced that tariffs are a “top-tier issue” for American companies. The survey found that one in four CFOs have reduced their planned capital spending this year as a result of trade policy. Plus, an equal share of CFOs has cut back on their hiring plans for 2025. These changes are in line with the larger, growing fears about the harmful, long-term effects of tariffs on U.S. businesses.
The Economic Impact of Tariffs
As we’ve seen in the survey results, this is just one facet of the strong economic uncertainty created by tariff policies. John Graham, one of the economists who worked on this year’s survey, expressed his dismay about the tariffs. He noted that their painful, self-inflicted rollout has created panic in the business community. The Duke University study determined that CFO economic optimism has plummeted. Trade tensions have accelerated this downturn, with tariffs quickly becoming the foremost concern and by a large margin.
"It's self-inflicted, both because of the tariffs themselves and because of the way the tariffs have been rolled out," said John Graham.
Ryan Messenger, CEO at First Rate Blinds, agrees with this sentiment. He tells us that the unpredictable nature of the trade war has made it, as he puts it, “very difficult” to plan business operations. Messenger explained that due to tariffs, products now cost 20% more on average for products imported from Mexico alone. Suppliers have jacked up prices beforehand in preparation for expected future tariffs.
"Everyone is scrambling and confused. It's so messed up," expressed Ryan Messenger.
Business Response to Trade Policy
The survey revealed that while 25% of CFOs have curtailed their hiring plans for 2025 due to tariffs, about 70% anticipate no change in their hiring strategies. Only 6% have said they’ve raised hiring plans due to trade policy. This mixed response showcases the disparate effect tariffs have had on businesses and industries.
As one commercial builder engaged in the survey put it, “It’s dangerous. They fear that tariffs might increase the price of imported feedstocks. This sentiment reflects broader worries among businesses that tariffs could dampen demand for U.S. goods and lead to increased costs.
"Tariffs are a major concern … the potential cost escalation of imported raw materials will negatively impact us," commented a commercial builder.
Stephen Moore told GOP lawmakers to focus on tax cuts, not tariffs. He thinks this strategy would better address some of Americans’ most pressing economic worries. We welcome his statement as an indication of recognition at the highest level of the need for strategic policy change to relieve business fears.
"My policy advice for Republicans: Stop talking about tariffs and get the tax cuts done quickly," advised Stephen Moore.
The Broader Implications
Especially given the on-again, off-again nature of the trade war, which has made it much more difficult for businesses to chart a course in overall rocky economic seas. Ryan Messenger concurred that the current administration’s tariff policies have placed a heavy burden on companies who have had to rapidly adjust.
"Some people might not buy new shades," added Ryan Messenger, illustrating how consumer behavior might change due to increased costs.
Despite mounting bipartisan criticism, the White House continues to assert that tariffs are crucial to remedying bad trade practices and other economic grievances. The ensuing statement praised President Trump for using tariffs “successfully” during his first term. His approach spurred robust economic growth without triggering inflation or excess.
"President Trump used tariffs to unleash historic economic, investment, job, and wage growth in his first term with no inflation, and he'll repeat the magic again in his second term," stated the White House.