The Eurozone is getting ready to publish what might be the most important economic indicator of the year. Looking forward to the release of HICP data, everyone! Scheduled for Friday, May 2, 2025, at 09:00, this monthly report by Eurostat provides critical insights into inflation trends across the region. Analysts expect a 0.2% rise in the Core HICP. They project it to increase from 2.4% to 2.5%, indicating a 2.5% increase in prices on a broad basket of goods and services across the European Monetary Union.
Each month Eurostat, the official statistical office of the European Union, publishes this HICP data. This index serves to unify the measure of inflation across each member state with a common methodology. The weight on each good and service is adjusted to give a more accurate picture of their importance to what consumers spend money on. This standardization enables a more accurate and consistent comparison of inflation rates between countries while in the Eurozone.
At the release of HICP data, economists, politicians and the general populace will witness live, today’s economy. Further, it will contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. These numbers are absolutely critical. They are an important part of a much larger decision-making process, particularly with regard to monetary policy, that helps steer the market. The European Central Bank (ECB) pays close attention to these inflation indicators to guide its interest rate decisions.
Adding to this upbeat picture were recent trends, which showed German inflation falling to a seven-month low. This decline is adding to an environment of softer inflation across the Eurozone. These kind of changes will strengthen the case for a possible ECB interest rate reduction already in June. If the upcoming HICP data confirms the consensus expectation of a 2.5% rate, it could reinforce the central bank’s position on adjusting interest rates.
One key area that market participants track is the EUR/JPY cross. They know it is doomed to be manipulated by Eurozone consumer inflation numbers and ECB policy moves. Recent market activity indicates a marginal pullback from the year-to-date highs. The EUR/JPY cross remains under 164.30 as we wait for HICP. Traders will therefore set their positions according to expected inflation numbers and what the ECB will do next.