With recent escalations in U.S.-Iran relations, the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become an acute concern. This narrow neck is one of the most important global chokepoints for energy supplies. This slim channel of water is essential for the energy security of most of the world, particularly in increasingly energy-hungry Asia. Nearly 20% of the world’s oil and gas transits through it. To that end, the Iranian parliament has passed bills to potentially seal this critical choke point. This response follows a series of U.S. military operations aimed at neutralizing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important chokepoints for seaborne crude oil and LNG shipments. That doesn’t change the fact of its significance, which has long deserved greater recognition. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, approximately 80% of U.S. crude oil and LNG exports to global markets transit this strait. Even a minor disruption in transit would have an outsized effect on oil prices and energy provision globally. That’s especially true for Asia, which depends almost exclusively on these energy imports.
For the last few decades, war planners have imagined Iran’s capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz. This issue has found renewed relevance especially in periods of increased geopolitical discord. These fears have been exacerbated by recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Shippers fear that Iran will make good on its threats to close shipping through this vital link. This shift has the potential to create an enormous energy security crisis for countries that depend on these energy sources. It might just jeopardize global economic prosperity.
Iranian officials have sought to highlight their capacity to deny any free movement through the Strait. Historical context shows us that during previous conflicts in the region, Iran has militarily intervened to sway contested shipping lanes in their favor. Yet this perennial discussion raises some serious issues. Should Iran follow through with its threats, it would have a profound effect on international shipping and global energy markets.
Given these advancements, experts—and reporters—are watching closely. That blockade or destruction poses a more immediate threat to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran could carry out in short order. Such moves could send oil prices soaring and increase volatility in already fragile global markets. For countries dependent on energy imports from this area, the immediate effects will be stark. This reality will upend their economies and increasingly provoke political backlash.