Deeply alarmed, scientists are raising their voices. A SLR of at least 1 to 2 meters is now unavoidable because climate change is speeding up. A large part of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has melted. This loss has increased by four times since the 1990s and fuels this deeply alarming trend. Experts warn that at this pace, things could spiral out of control into something nearly unmanageable well before this century reaches its close.
The impacts of sea level rise are terrifying. Approximately 230 million people currently live within one meter above sea level, while a staggering one billion reside within ten meters. Even a seemingly small increase of 20 centimeters in sea level by 2050 might trigger catastrophic effects. THE SKY’S THE LIMIT The world’s 136 largest coastal cities could soon see annual flood damages over $1 trillion. We are in a moment where urgency around addressing this crisis is paramount.
Escalating mass loss from ice sheets would pose an accelerating, inexorable, and existential threat to the world’s coastal populations.
Today, the rate of sea level rise is higher than it’s been in recent history. At the end of the last ice age, roughly 15,000 years ago, sea levels were rising at ten times today’s rate. Knowing this historical context, we can better understand how serious our current situation truly is. Today, atmospheric CO2 levels are equivalent to those of three million years ago, an epoch when sea levels were ten to twenty meters higher.
Scientists indicate that even if significant cuts were made to meet international targets, such as those outlined in the Paris Agreement, sea levels would still rise by about one centimeter annually by the century’s end.
Of these, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are melting most dramatically. This would lead to a scary 12 meter rise in sea levels. Yet this optimistic scenario, referred to as “really dire” by some experts, is a wake-up call not to get too comfortable.
“We’re starting to see some of the worst-case scenarios play out almost in front of us. At current warming of 1.2C, sea level rise is accelerating at rates that, if they continue, would become almost unmanageable before the end of this century, [which is] within the lifetime of our young people.”
Together, these results highlight the urgent importance of keeping global temperatures well below 2°C, as called for in the Paris Agreement. Carlos Fuller emphasizes this point:
Looking ahead, it is evident that land lost to rising seas will remain submerged for an extended period, potentially until Earth enters its next ice age. The optimistic possibility Humanity will be able to lower atmospheric CO2 back to preindustrial levels. For ice sheets, full recovery will take hundreds to thousands of years.
“What we mean by safe limit is one which allows some level of adaptation, rather than catastrophic inland migration and forced migration, and the safe limit is roughly 1cm a year of sea level rise.”
Prof. Andrea Dutton warns about the consequences of crossing critical temperature thresholds:
“Findings such as these only sharpen the need to remain within the 1.5C Paris agreement limit, or as close as possible, so we can return to lower temperatures and protect our coastal cities.”
The scientific community will be watching closely to see how these developments unfold. The accelerating retreat of ice from large, continental scale ice sheets is an important new milestone in the unfolding climate crisis. We need coordinated, global effort to tackle this urgent, global problem.
Prof. Andrea Dutton warns about the consequences of crossing critical temperature thresholds:
“Evidence recovered from past warm periods suggests that several metres of sea level rise – or more – can be expected when global mean temperature reaches 1.5C or higher.”
The scientific community remains alert to these developments. The accelerating loss of ice from major ice sheets signifies a turning point in the climate crisis, one that necessitates immediate global action.