Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna has successfully led negotiations with Washington to secure a landmark mineral deal between Ukraine and the United States. This draft agreement, which was reached amidst significant pressure on Ukraine’s leadership since President Donald Trump's inauguration in January, aims to jointly develop Ukraine's rich mineral resources, including oil and gas. In a notable shift, the U.S. has abandoned its demands for a right to $500 billion in potential revenue from this agreement. However, the deal is not without its complexities, as it reflects a compromise that neither party finds ideal but is deemed "good enough for both for the negotiating process to move forward," according to Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's Ministry of Strategic Industries.
Despite the absence of specific security guarantees in the text of the deal, as reported by the Financial Times, the agreement signifies a reinforced alliance between Ukraine and its key transatlantic ally during wartime. The United States has committed $119.5 billion in support to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, although Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disputes this figure, suggesting it is closer to $100 billion. Zelenskyy emphasizes the importance of understanding what Ukraine can gain from this deal, seeking both security guarantees and contingent plans for after the war.
"From Trump I want an understanding what Ukraine can get, as well as security guarantees and contingent after the hot stage of war is ended," – Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The mineral deal primarily focuses on rare earths and other minerals, with President Trump highlighting its significance without delving into specifics. He has previously claimed that such a deal would offer the U.S. access to $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals as a form of compensation for aid provided to Kyiv. However, Trump's recent statements have been more subdued, acknowledging the need for a mutually beneficial agreement.
"It's rare earths, and other things," – Donald Trump
"An agreement should be win-win for American businesses and Ukraine's people," – Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Ukraine's leadership has faced sustained pressure to finalize this agreement with the U.S., balancing economic gains with strategic interests. While Bloomberg News and Sky News reported that terms of the agreement have been reached, it's evident that further negotiations are necessary to iron out remaining concerns. Notably, Trump conveyed openness to signing the agreement alongside President Zelenskyy, recognizing its importance.
"It's certainly ok with me if he'd like to, and he would like to sign it together with me. And I understand that's a big deal, a very big deal," – Donald Trump
Zelenskyy has expressed caution regarding any obligations that may burden future generations of Ukrainians, underscoring his commitment to securing a fair deal.
"I'm not signing something that 10 generations of Ukrainians will be paying off." – Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The estimated value of Ukraine's natural resources remains uncertain, with one official estimating $350 billion worth located in Russian-occupied territories. This underscores the strategic importance of Ukraine’s mineral wealth in bolstering its economic resilience and military capabilities during ongoing conflicts.
Trump acknowledged Ukraine's bravery and the critical role of U.S. support in sustaining their efforts against aggression. He noted that without American financial and military assistance, Ukraine's capacity to continue fighting would be severely hampered.
"Ukraine, I will say they're very brave, and they're good soldiers, but without the United States and its money and its military equipment, this war would have been over in a very short time," – Donald Trump
As negotiations continue, both sides remain optimistic about finalizing an agreement that aligns with their strategic and economic interests. Despite initial disagreements over figures and terms, Ukraine is determined to strengthen ties with its key ally while safeguarding national interests.
"Many things we didn't like were dropped," – Yuriy Sak