Even the old Trump administration’s Golden Dome missile defense program wasn’t a match. It will not be fully operational before the end of President Donald Trump’s term. This grand but ill-conceived initiative aims to develop a multi-layered missile defense shield. It has been plagued by repeated setbacks and stumbles, raising concerns over its viability and timetable.
The Golden Dome project will fall under the jurisdiction of the United States Space Force, currently led by General Michael Guetlein. The goal of the program is to rapidly detect ballistic missiles shortly after liftoff. Specifically, it aims to neutralize them during the incredibly important first half minute to two minutes. The Pentagon has had a hard time with the current ground-based interceptors, whose success rate now stands at just 20%. Golden Dome’s estimated price tag currently sits at around $175 billion. The funding levels are $17.6 billion for 2026, almost $50 billion for 2027 and close to $100 billion for 2028.
Despite Trump’s assertion that Golden Dome would be “fully operational” by the end of his presidency, the reality is that the technology necessary for the program remains in development and may not be feasible for years. The detailed implementation plan adopted calls for defense weapons to be developed for testing by the end of 2028. That readiness will only be manifested under the best of circumstances.
In a statement, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he was “offended” by the name “Golden Dome” and called for finding better names for programs. For DOD, as the Pentagon is looking at a constellation of space-based sensors and communication networks. They really want to connect this infrastructure with unproven, untested space-based weapons. These recent changes are intended to improve Golden Dome’s functionality and flexibility. They lean towards a slow, measured transition to operations, rather than opening all systems equally at the same time.
Elon Musk‘s SpaceX has been developing an exploratory aerial moving target identifier, which has been so far largely kept under wraps. This would prove crucial for the Golden Dome endeavor. Officials have indicated that they “will not publicly disclose specific technical details regarding the capabilities or acquisition strategies of certain advanced systems,” according to Sean Parnell.
Aside from its far-reaching aims, the Golden Dome program has stirred debate in the US about foreign participation. Canada could be a partner, too, Trump added. As a way out of this impasse, he offered two alternatives: pay up $61 billion or explore measures to become the 51st state of the United States.
The United States now has only around 40 Patriot defense batteries in Alaska and California. These batteries are poised to shoot down any incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles that might try to attack our homeland. The Golden Dome program now has a questionable timeline and efficacy. That’s why many experts are calling its ambitious goals a “moonshot.”
The growing complexity of the project has fed debate over different stages of the development. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is working to sharpen its detection capabilities of incoming missiles in the glide phase and boost phase. At the same time, officials are navigating daunting technological hurdles to reach full operational capability.