In a surprising turn of events, Russian President Vladimir Putin has opted not to attend the peace talks scheduled in Istanbul, leaving many to speculate about the future of negotiations regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has assured that a Russian delegation will be at the head of the negotiations. These initial talks seek to lay down a format for future talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Putin decided to invade after an early morning meeting on Feb. 21 with senior Russian government officials. Most likely they strategized about the agenda for the coming Istanbul talks at that meeting. He expressed interest in pursuing a path to “direct negotiations” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “without any preconditions.” The implications His absence to the second round calls into question Russia’s commitment to the dialogue.
As recently as this evening, the Kremlin made official that Putin would be sending a delegation headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky. Amongst the most significant members of the entourage are Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin. Among them is senior military official Igor Kostyukov. Significantly, Putin’s name was conspicuously absent from the Kremlin’s official announcement of the delegation.
Zelenskyy, aware of the changes occurring within the Russian leadership, stated, “I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing.” His statement is the right tone of caution as Ukraine gets fired up for the negotiations.
This advance is the result of a historic gathering. Putin and then-U.S. President Donald Trump at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki on July 16, 2018. Perhaps the brightest light in all this uncertainty is Trump’s understanding of the current state of affairs. He commented, “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible,” indicating that even without Putin’s presence, the talks may still yield potential outcomes.
The world’s eyes are upon us. Putin’s no-show at these critical peace negotiations would mark a seismic shift in Russian and Ukrainian plans in the days and months to come. Those negotiations remain very much in the balance. All of the above stakeholders are deeply interested in seeing clear development of the results and their effect on regional stability.