Since early 2022, Russia’s military intelligence unit GRU Unit 26165 – known as APT 28 / Fancy Bear – has intensified its cyber-campaign. This ramped-up campaign now focuses on both public and private entities in NATO countries. This dishonest smear effort is designed to chip away at support for Ukraine by going after anyone who works to help the beleaguered country through the NGO sector. The GRU uses tactics like phishing emails and password theft to gain access to systems. They aim at military installations and vital infrastructure, like particular camera surveillance methods at essential bridge crossings and railway stations.
The evident aim of this cyber-activity is to interfere with humanitarian assistance efforts to Ukraine. The GRU’s operations coincide with a broader military strategy that includes increasing troop presence along the borders of NATO countries. As the conflict continues with no end or resolution in sight, the geopolitical picture grows more dangerous. Military movements and cyber warfare continue to play a hand in the conflict today.
Poland took aim at a so-called “shadow fleet” just last month. They intercepted an oil tanker that had been engaged in suspicious activities around an undersea power cable connecting Poland and Sweden. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he was shocked at how the vessel behaved. He focused on the continued dangers posed by Russian disinformation campaigns on the region.
Finland is preparing for possible escalations. Finnish officials are already anticipating a Russian military buildup along their new shared border. They do not think this will decline until Ukraine’s conflict is resolved. Finland is already going to town on their fence, having finished a 35-kilometer stretch of its proposed 200-kilometer long fence. This integrated project will strengthen the state’s border security against future incursions.
In a related development, Ukraine’s military reported that ten of its drones successfully struck the Bolkhovsky semiconductor plant in Russia’s Oryol region. This facility provides a key input to Russia’s production of fighter jets and missiles. The attack on this strategic site, and future attacks of course, indicate Ukraine’s ongoing and deepening efforts to attack Russian military capabilities.
In contrast, Russia has announced progress on hotly contested fronts in eastern Ukraine. According to multiple reports, Russian troops have smashed through Ukrainian lines along the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line in the Donetsk Oblast. In fact, Russia’s own defense ministry claimed that more than 370 Ukrainian drones carried out strikes deep inside Russia’s borders on one Wednesday in late August. Of those, 27 were directed at Moscow itself.
Recent military engagements have seen some of these callously met with tragic losses. As many as six soldiers were killed and at least ten others wounded in a Russian artillery strike on a military training site in northeastern Ukraine. These events highlight the sheer chaos and unpredictability of the conflict even deep into its second year and the ongoing danger of Russian military activity.
In light of these circumstances, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the critical need for coordinated international responses to effectively implement sanctions against Moscow. He stated, “It is important that all decisions are coordinated. Then the sanctions will work. Without pressure on Moscow, a just peace cannot be achieved.”
As hostilities aim, international observers disaster declared vigilance. What’s more, the reality on the ground is dynamic, where cyber and conventional warfare have become more and more interconnected. The long-term implications of these actions are deep, striking not just at the heart of regional stability, but at the very foundation of global security frameworks.