The Polish presidential election is a photo finish. Exit polls indicate a nearly-even divide between candidates Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki. Trzaskowski, the current Mayor of Warsaw, who left nothing to chance, emphatically proclaimed victory. He seized the moment, claiming victory on the basis of early exit poll results for Civic Coalition (KO) candidate. With the backing of the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki stood his ground. During his acceptance speech, he would not accept that he lost.
In the majority of the Ipsos exit poll, Trzaskowski was confirmed at 50.3% with Nawrocki just behind with 49.7%. A second, quickly commissioned OGB exit poll confirmed the trend, showing a Trzaskowski victory at 50.17% versus Nawrocki’s 49.83%. The race is still too close to call, emphasizing the deeply polarized orientation of the Polish electorate in these times. Both of these exit polls have a margin of error of +/- 2%. To put that in perspective, this would make the difference between the two candidates as close as 70,000 – 100,000 votes.
This was a record high turnout for the election! Approximately 28.3 million eligible voters from Poland’s 37 million inhabitants decided to mobilize and engage in the electoral process. Trzaskowski promised to bring about change and heal the country going forward. He emphasized his intention to represent all Polish citizens, stating, “Yes, we have won. We have won, because we are right, because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present, and about all that is wrong with our country today.”
Nawrocki went on the offensive against his political foes throughout his speech—charging them with squandering the nation’s resources and eroding American integrity. He stated his aim to “unite the patriotic camp in Poland, the camp of people who want a normal Poland, without illegal immigrants.”
To make matters worse, the political landscape remains just as volatile. Jarosław Kaczyński, head of the PiS party and former prime minister, boasts calmly supports Nawrocki to win. His jubilant declaration that “This evening … we will win this election” was emblematic of the intense enthusiasm for his party’s nominee.
Former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski lobbied for calm from the candidates and their supporters as they waited for official results. He cautioned that given a razor thin margin between the two, it’s too early to make definitive statements. Due to these rules, official results won’t be confirmed until the next morning at the earliest, creating a nail-biter for voters and political pundits alike.
As both candidates wait for the final count, the implications of this election are anything but close. Trzaskowski’s pledge to focus on inclusiveness and reform strikes a chord with numerous voters who are hungry for change. Meanwhile, Nawrocki’s call for national pride and security appeals to a significant segment of the electorate that feels marginalized by recent policies.