Former President Donald Trump’s hardline immigration policies are upending major industries in America. Agriculture and hospitality industries are hurting the worst. He is really ramping up his war on undocumented workers. Consequently, numerous industries that are most dependent on this stoic workforce are now experiencing severe shortfalls, sounding the klaxons about the future economic fallout.
By admitting he drives this economic wrecking ball, that’s what makes him so dangerous. He acknowledges that they might be a harbinger of Japan’s coming to terms with an aging population and economic stagnation. Strict immigration controls in Japan have contributed to a shrinking workforce. Economists are sounding the alarm that a similar fate could await the United States if we stay on our current course.
Under Trump, this campaign to criminalize and eject undocumented people from the workforce has only intensified. And nearly one in five workers in the U.S. last year were immigrants. This cohort is integral to ensuring the U.S. remains the world’s productivity leader across industries. Recent enforcement actions have had a chilling effect on companies such as Total Quality. They announced 15 staff departures following Trump’s elimination of temporary protections for Venezuelans and Nicaraguans immigrants.
A majority of employers say they’re worried about the tightening labor market. Adam Lampert of Lampert Lumber, a company that would be heavily impacted, said, “I don’t go out and recruit illegal aliens to come work in our jobs. Indeed, this is indicative of a larger trend among firms that are having a difficult time recruiting workers to fill jobs they currently have open. Retraction of temporary work permits has lost some of these people their jobs, deepening the workforce crisis.
Yet Trump’s policies are narrowly aimed at undocumented immigrants, who make up just about 4 percent of the U.S. workforce. He is increasing workplace raids, a tactic that President Biden had already put a stop to. This action poses the massive threat of destabilizing the lives of millions of people who have established deep roots in the U.S.
Justino Gomez, an immigrant affected by these policies, shared his experiences: “Every time I leave home, I have this stress on my mind.” Immigrants have an acute sense of fear and danger being in today’s immigrant-bashing environment. This tension only increases as they face greater operational scrutiny and enforcement actions against them.
Free-market economists cautioned that if Trump moves forward with a widespread crackdown, it would have disastrous economic impact. Back then, Giovanni Peri cautioned that the effects of these policies would be dire. He thinks they’ll turn the economy into a creaking, moribund hulk, with zero dynamism. The potential for inflation raises concerns. IRI’s Jim Tobin cautioned, “We’re going to have some amazing inflation if you scrape all these people off the face of the earth.” We should heed his warning about the grave danger of removing critical workers from the labor force.
Trump’s immigration policies are hurting businesses while ripping apart communities and families. His insistence on mass deportations was central to Trump’s shocking victory. It continues to enjoy overwhelming support across the electorate, with majority support from key demographics, including by Hispanic voters. His administration just recently put forth plans to terminate status protecting immigrants from Haiti and Venezuela. Enough is enough, a growing chorus say as they ask how long such repressive measures can be sustained.
Esmail Porsa says that the demographic trend paired with a tougher immigration climate will lead to a “perfect storm.” He thinks this predicament is about to hit a tipping point. All of our industries depend on a constant stream of new workers to replace those that are retiring or leaving the workforce. Absent this replacement, they will find it nearly impossible to sustain productivity.
Trump’s admission of the wreck Trump’s policies are creating is a sign of hope, both for policymakers and business leaders. While his administration’s recent initiatives are raising questions. Americans are struggling to find the answer between cracking down on illegal immigration and preserving a robust, legal workforce that serves as a catalyst for economic expansion.