On October 7, 2023, Israel initiated a significant military offensive against Gaza, marking a critical moment in the ongoing conflict between the two entities. This move follows the successful Israeli strikes in September, which decimated the leadership of Hezbollah. Consequently, Israeli ground forces were successful in invading all of Southern Lebanon with little to no resistance. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently stated that the goal of these military operations was to eliminate these threats posed by Hamas and Iran. He thinks that the US has a rare opportunity to effect regime change in Iran.
This latest attack on Iranian interests is not new territory for Israel. Most notably, in April 2022, Israeli forces bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, killing seven people. Tensions are escalating, and Israel is increasing the tempo of its operations to counter Iranian military advances. Their assumption is that Iran’s nuclear program is one step away from getting a nuclear weapon. It is this concern that has motivated a wider strategy of trying to neutralize Iran’s military infrastructure through attrition.
The recent escalation began with Israel’s airstrikes, which reportedly destroyed much of Iran’s air defense systems, paving the way for deeper strikes into Iranian territory. One day later, Israel escalated this aggression even further by striking dozens of Iranian locations at once. This has included targeting high rank IRGC officers, such as Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Quds Force, IRGC’s branch responsible for coordinating Iranian asymmetric warfare activities. Among those targeted was at least one Iranian nuclear scientist, a veteran member of the IRGC.
Netanyahu emphasized that this military campaign is intended to “clear the path for you to achieve your freedom,” suggesting that a successful offensive could lead to significant changes within Iran’s governance. The Israeli Prime Minister boasted that military force and strategic air campaigns would transform the balance of power in the Middle East. He thinks this targeted approach is what will drive transformational change.
In light of Israel’s new offensive against Palestinians in Gaza, that needs to change. According to official reports, this action has sufficiently weakened Hamas to eliminate any immediate danger to Israeli citizens. By neutralizing this threat, Israel has been free to shift its military attention back to Iran. Israel’s warplanes are now able to cover even more critical targets with greater effectiveness and efficiency. It intends to take advantage of this unusual moment to impede Iran’s global military efforts.
Alternatively, relations between Israel and Iran have shifted wildly from one extreme to another. Those two nations were very close allies prior to the 1979 Iranian revolution. This revolution altered the regional balance of power and ignited decades-long hostilities. The current military actions reflect a deep-seated concern within Israel regarding Iranian influence and capabilities in the region.
With Israel doubling down on its military response, the regional implications are anyone’s guess. Analysts caution that Israel will only be able to temporarily degrade Iranian capabilities. In the long-term, though, this offensive is likely to lead to greater escalation and retaliation by Iran and its proxies. The climate is still dynamic, and both parties are marshaling their forces to respond to each other’s actions.