With the war in Ukraine dragging on, PM Putin’s hopes seem more out of reach than ever. After 18 months and a brutal military campaign, Russia’s goals are still unachieved, leading many to wonder what the ramifications of such a strategy could be. Political analysts have made a very important point in recent days. The real question is not whether Russia can afford to continue its onslaught. Instead, it’s whether Russia can afford to lose politically.
As professor and military strategist Sir Lawrence Freedman put it, “The only question now is whether Russia can persevere, not whether it can win.” It cannot, for any of the political ends it hoped to achieve in the near term.
In an effort to help Ukraine in the face of this escalating war, U.S. President Joe Biden has just approved another historic round of weapon shipments to Ukraine. Nevertheless, this flow of shipments is coming close to its end, prompting questions about the future of military assistance to the heavily engaged nation. The stories we’ve shared underscore the need for continued post-election support. Moscow is accelerating its bombardment of Ukrainian cities, launching a horrific 728 drones and 13 missiles in a single day.
Against this reality of increasing aggression, Donald Trump is finally coming around to the truth that Moscow won’t accept a peaceful settlement. He stated, “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin … He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.” His comments are a sign of an increasing sensitivity in U.S. politics. They detail how Putin’s brutal treatment of warfare has exposed his fixation on creating control rather than going after diplomatic resolutions.
While Ukraine does fight against real challenges, it accomplishes remarkable victories. In the Black Sea, Ukrainian forces not only liberated new shipping routes, they secured the pathways necessary to get goods across borders safely. Passing this development is a tremendously important lifeline for Ukraine’s economy and morale. Russia continues to make significant, strategic gains on the ground. This approach is growing more costly in terms of manpower and resources.
We know the war has taken a catastrophic toll on the people of Ukraine. Speaking at a recent Atlantic Council conference in Washington, Olena Zelenska, First Lady of Ukraine, repeated that Ukrainians now live with constant stress and compounding emotional trauma. This sentiment underscores the human cost of the conflict as civilians bear the brunt of military actions and disruptions to daily life.
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is leading the charge on a new bipartisan sanctions bill, targeting Russia. This effort is gaining momentum across the United States. These measures can help to compound pressure on Moscow. They’re a demonstration of the unified front among U.S. lawmakers to indicate their continued support for Ukraine.
European leaders meeting in Rome for a conference on Ukrainian recovery. As they charted the path ahead, they emphasized the need for strategic approaches. Andriy Zagorodnyuk argued for Kyiv’s efforts to focus on “strategic neutralisation” to stay one step ahead of Russian moves and stop them in their tracks.
As Ukraine continues its fight for sovereignty amidst Russian aggression, the international community remains engaged in seeking solutions both through military support and diplomatic efforts. The next handful of weeks will be critical in determining what happens with this troubling new conflict. They will share lessons learned on how they are addressing urgent needs and preparing for Ukraine’s future recovery.