Former President Donald Trump has decided to distance himself from engagement in the peace process between Russia and Ukraine. This agreement clears the way for either country to plan a summit between President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy without his direct involvement. This is a sign of an emerging Trump pivot. He has later taken a “wait-and-see” approach regarding rescheduling the indeterminately postponed in-person meeting.
Trump’s reluctance to intervene comes after acknowledging the complexities surrounding the conflict in Ukraine, which he initially believed could be resolved swiftly. On the campaign trail last year, he famously pledged to end that war in 24 hours. As recent events have shown, making peace may be harder than he had hoped.
Trump has ruled out sending American boots on the ground for offensive operations in Ukraine. He remains open to offering security guarantees for the country. Now, he is doubling down on his evident plan. He plans to bring both leaders together trilaterally, once they each have had the opportunity to engage in preliminary conversations.
“I just want to see what happens at the meeting. So they’re in the process of setting it up and we’re going to see what happens.” – Donald Trump
Unlike Biden, Trump prefers a more organic resolution to the conflict. To this end, his decision to allow the two leaders to meet on their own accord was an inspired move. He has made clear to his advisers that he intends to not be the actor who helps line up their initial one. His strategy takes direct cue from recent White House meetings with Zelenskyy and European allies. In the course of these back and forths, he negotiated some tangible measures toward setting up a bilateral meeting between the two leaders, Putin and Zelenskyy.
Immediately after Trump’s first discussions with Zelenskyy, Trump took part in a 40 minute-long phone call with Putin. According to these same reports, Trump’s special envoy to the negotiations, Steve Witkoff, won concessions from Moscow on possible security guarantees for Ukraine. As Witkoff explained, it was significant that Putin recognized that the United States can offer guarantees of the kind provided by NATO’s Article 5 collective self-defense mandate.
“We were able to win the following concession: that the United States could offer Article 5-like protection, which is one of the real reasons why Ukraine wants to be in NATO.” – Steve Witkoff
The White House is opposed to a number of other proposals as well. They especially mistrust the ones calling for Russia to be a long-term security guarantor of Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently indicated that Russia should be included in any security guarantees involving permanent members of the UN Security Council.
“The Ukrainian side proposed, and our delegation at that time agreed, to work out security guarantees that would involve all permanent members of the UN Security Council – that is, Russia, the People’s Republic of China, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom.” – Sergei Lavrov
Trump is clearly trying to find a way forward. Back here, any U.S. support to Ukraine… it would probably be more like intelligence sharing, aerial support—preventing the direct deployment of U.S. troops. Trump’s cautious approach would actually play right into his broader strategy. He has expressed hope for a short peace treaty following the withdrawal of his outrageous deadline for Russia to end hostilities which expired earlier this month.