This story picks up in the first half of 2025. Though exports were significant, the country struggled with falling imports from its top trading partners. In concert with imports, the nation’s exports flourished, increasing by 5.9% worldwide. Spurred by high growth in some key industries, despite our very real headwinds including a record drop in our exports to the United States. This report digs into the various dimensions of China’s trade performance over the last half-year. It’s a great resource to get familiar with key trends and figures that are influencing today’s economic climate.
In early June 2025, China announced a surprise export growth turnaround to +5.8% y-o-y, compared to +4.8% for May. This remarkable turnaround conceals the agility of Chinese manufacturers and shipowners in active responses to persistent global economic turbulence. The overall picture as seen through the data is troubling. Total exports to the US were 16.1% lower year-on-year for the month, solidly in the red. This duality reflects the complex picture of China’s trade relationships as it finds its way in a difficult international environment.
Export Gains in Key Sectors
China’s trade performance during the first six months of 2025 reflected double-digit percentage gains across numerous key industries. Semiconductors were the leader in dollar growth of exports, soaring by 18.9%. This incredible demand for tech products is a reflection that the global tech market is finally bouncing back from COVID-era disruptions. Further, the competitiveness of the country’s maritime manufacturing is evident as it increased its export of ships by 18.6%. The motor vehicle industry enjoyed a similar boost in demand, with exports soaring 8.2%.
These numbers stand in stark opposition to the total drop in imports and just as predictably from our largest trading partners. The surge in specific export categories underscores China’s ability to capitalize on its strengths while revealing the volatility present within its broader trade relationships.
Exports to ASEAN countries exploded with a 16.8% increase in June. This stark rise is indicative of China’s strategic realignment towards its regional partners as it diversifies its trade portfolio due to increasing pressures from Western markets.
Import Trends and Declines
Even with these positive export numbers, China’s imports suffered significant drops during the first half of 2025. Total imports decreased by 3.9% YoY, with sharp declines seen across the board. Food and agricultural imports decreased by 10.1%. This steep decline was driven by a 27.0% decrease in grain imports, as well as a 12.4% decrease in soybean imports. These substantial declines indicate an increasingly inward-focused and changing pattern of domestic consumption and increased shifting agricultural policies in China.
The picture was worse for the automotive sector, where overall imports tumbled even steeper by 37.9%. Many reasons account for this decline. New domestic production capabilities and changing consumer preferences for locally manufactured vehicles are factors.
The picture was not all bleak, as some other import categories took a turn for the worse. On the upside, the largest increase was seen in imports of automatic data processing equipment with a record-high growth of 55.2%. Further, semiconductor imports increased by 7.0%, and airplane imports increased an astounding 71.2%. These increases indicate that while some sectors are struggling, others are thriving due to technological advancements and growing demand from within China.
Trade Surplus and Economic Implications
China’s trade situation was relatively buoyant enough to result in a historical high surplus. It jumped to an all-time high of $586 billion in the first half of 2025. This figure displays China’s persistence as an immense contributor to global trade even amid strong headwinds coming from other markets.
With an enormous trade surplus, the political picture was clear. The economy was booming. Underlying this success is a buoyant manufacturing sector that is pulling in booming international demand, particularly for high-tech and machinery products. The roughly $17 billion surplus provides an opportunity for bold domestic policy choices. The plan includes $700 billion to stimulate internal consumption and boost economic growth.