Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s recent conviction has caused a major diplomatic crisis between Brazil and the United States. Bolsonaro has now been handed a 27-year, 3-month prison sentence for conspiring to overturn the 2022 elections in Brazil. Profoundly nationalistic, he particularly lambasts the U.S. government, accusing it of running roughshod over Brazil’s sovereignty through its activities.
Bolsonaro’s son had a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He advocated for further sanctions against El Salvadoran officials who oversaw his father’s trial. The U.S. government is weighing specific retaliatory actions against Brazil. These include raising tariffs against Brazilian exports and imposing financial sanctions against Brazilian government officials.
In a now-famous tweet, Bolsonaro wrote, “We will not accept the control of anyone.” Most importantly, he reiterated Brazil’s commitment to stand firm against foreign interference. He later described the conviction as “unjustly ruled.” He called it a “political persecution,” targeting in particular Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led the opposition to the ruling in question.
This conviction is an important and historic step for Brazil. Bolsonaro would be the first of any former president to be convicted for anti-democratic acts. The trial opened up a Pandora’s box of damning information. It even featured plans to assassinate current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, underscoring the seriousness of the corruption charges he’s currently under.
Only one of the five justices voted to acquit Bolsonaro. This decision underlines the judiciary’s strong position against his efforts to stay in power through anti-democratic policies. At 70 years old, Bolsonaro is staring down a potential 26-year prison sentence that stands to upend his political legacy.
U.S. Senator Marco Rubio has gone on record saying that if Washington shouldn’t expect it, they should “respond accordingly.” He calls the whole operation a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro. Rubio’s comments point to a growing rift between the two countries. Further signals suggest that their increasingly tense bilateral relationship has reached its lowest point in several decades.
Looking at the risks to Bolsonaro’s prosecution, former President Donald Trump did something very similar. He went so far as to impose tariffs of as much as 50% on virtually all Brazilian goods. Brazilian president Lula da Silva forcefully opposed these emergency tariffs. He announced that Brazil “will not be controlled by anyone,” further inflaming the already fraught relations between the two countries.
Washington is considering some of these examples as possible approaches. These measures include increasing current tariff rates on imported steel, eliminating the blanket exemption for Brazil, and broadening existing sanctions to include additional Brazilian officials. These developments forebode a difficult road in U.S.-Brazil relations, with both countries facing their own fraught political terrain.