Until then, Washington, D.C. will have to continue dealing with the backlash of escalating crime concerns. Violent crime rates are hitting a 50-year low. So far in 2023, the District has been experiencing its highest rate of homicides since the 1990s, as well as a major increase in carjackings. This latest wave of crime has stoked the fears of city residents. In fact, according to a new Washington Post poll, 65% of Washingtonians currently consider crime to be an “extremely serious” or “very serious” problem.
Here’s what the federal data shows — and why, even after a violent 2023, Washington, D.C. violent crime is at its lowest point in 30 years. This poses a significant challenge to the doom and gloom narrative that has taken root throughout the city. The contrast between public perception and reality raises questions about how crime is discussed in political arenas, particularly as the 2024 elections approach.
Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser has been one of the most outspoken mayors in plugging that reality perception gap. She argues that though crime rates look scary because of recent increases, crime is actually decreasing overall.
“We are not experiencing a spike in crime,” – Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser
She delivered her remarks today in reaction to critics of Trump’s assertions that crime is rampant in the District. She painted those assertions as “hyperbolic,” and “chilling.”
“In fact, we’re watching our crime numbers go down,” – Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser
Crime data analyst Jeff Asher cautioned that there’s frequently a gap between what’s been reported in statistics and how the public views it. He pointed out that Americans have a tendency to feel like crime is increasing even when it’s not—sometimes even when the data show the opposite.
“It doesn’t matter if crime has gone down if you were a victim,” – Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser
Even with a significant decrease in total crime reported in 2024, the narrative is off-center. A recent YouGov poll found that nearly a third—34 percent—of U.S. adults believe that murder rates in American cities have skyrocketed since 1990. This perception reveals an alarmingly prevalent fear of crime when, in reality, the data is telling a much different narrative.
“I think that they’re two very different sides of a similar coin,” – Jeff Asher, crime data analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics
The perpetual narrative on crime in our nation’s home—Washington, D.C.—shows just how powerful political optics can be in influencing the public perception. Once again, Trump’s focus on crime strikes a chord with key voters, especially in the suburbs, where the policies making everyone feel unsafe are coming home to roost. His rhetoric taps into some real fears about urban crime. In fact, the truth is that, contrary to what people often think, many cities have successfully cut their homicide rates in recent decades.
As the debate continues into 2024, policymakers should confront the realities of crime statistics. That needs them to get to grip with the culture of fear that saturates the public narrative. Engaging the public through clear, fact-based communication and education about what is really happening with crime will be key to closing the perception-exporting-reality loop.
As the conversation continues into 2024, policymakers face the challenge of addressing both the realities of crime statistics and the pervasive fears that influence public opinion. Effective communication and education regarding actual crime trends may prove essential for bridging the gap between perception and reality.