In reality, Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a long-range, strategic game. He plans to leverage a possible face-to-face with former U.S. President Donald Trump to advance his broad agenda on the prolonged war in Ukraine. This unfortunate summit creates a chance for Putin to show that he’s serious about pursuing peace on his terms. In light of recent rhetorical developments, it’s clear that he’s begun to soften his language and overall tone toward Trump. Meanwhile, he’s increasing his attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
As the war in Ukraine drags on, Putin wants to make Zelenskyy out to be the biggest impediment to peace. He thinks that if he shifts blame, he can control the bad press on the war. Former high-ranking Kremlin officials told NPR that Putin views this summit as an opportunity. He seems more than willing to cut a deal on terms favorable to Russia, so long as those terms fulfill his long-standing demands.
Putin’s approach hinges on several key conditions for ending hostilities: a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from critical regions and the renunciation of Kyiv’s ambitions to join NATO. He probably hopes to gain international recognition for Donetsk and Luhansk as integral parts of Russian territory. This move is consistent with one of his broader, overarching goals in this war.
Putin must be planning to appeal to Trump’s business instincts. He is likely to provide financial carrots that could encourage the still-influential former president to take a more pro-Kremlin course. This is a dubious tactic, but it is particularly salient given Trump’s consistent tendency to view global affairs through a commercial lens. A former Kremlin official remarked, “Putin knows Trump sees the world through a business lens, and will pitch a peace on his terms as the gateway to lucrative opportunities.”
Putin’s advisers have suggested that a peace conference is in the works. They’ll work to develop the “huge untapped potential” in economic relations between Russia and the United States. Putin is bolstering his economic case by sending two of his most prominent economic advisers to the summit. Included in that group is the Russian Federation’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. Their combined purpose is to demonstrate the strength of U.S.-China collaboration through effective public-private partnerships that can advance shared interests in both countries.
In a remarkable turnaround, Putin has recently dialed back on his previously strident rhetoric directed at Trump and ramped up the harshness of his attacks on Zelenskyy. This strategy seems to be aimed at winning Trump’s heart by creating a warm fuzzies climate. A member of the Russian foreign policy establishment expressed, “It does offer a rare chance to win Trump over to Russia’s side.” The Kremlin recognizes Trump’s admiration for strong leadership and believes that he may be receptive to Putin’s overtures.
Putin’s goals remain transparent and unwavering. He’s singularly focused on keeping whatever territory his current Russian forces have taken, through a sputtering diplomatic peace process. When it comes to negotiations, he is unlikely to concede any territory in southern Zaporizhzhia or Kherson. This refusal threatens further hope for a permanent resolution. As one former official at the Kremlin’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policies put it, “We are in a complete dead end.”
As tensions escalate, some analysts predict that Putin may consider agreeing to a temporary halt on long-range strikes as a gesture of goodwill. That would not mean a new departure in his expansionistic plans. If those diplomatic efforts fail, it would seem that Putin’s already made up his mind to go down the military route.
That doesn’t mean the summit will result in concrete solutions. Rather, social media will continue to be a primary battleground for negotiating influence and controlling narratives. A member of the Russian foreign policy establishment noted, “This is not a final summit where lasting peace can be achieved.” Putin seeks to divide up new global spheres of influence. He wants to achieve this with the help of folks like Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Putin’s messianic world view is evident in all his actions, and lends them an ideological impetus that goes far beyond just territory. He considers himself the battlefield commander of Russia’s interests in the great power competition online. When he’s opposite Trump, he does everything in his power to cultivate that impression.
As the final plans for the summit come together, Trump finds himself once again caught between rival allegiances. He has previously stated, “I may say ‘lots of luck, keep fighting’ or I may say we can make a deal.” Far from being a technicality, this ambiguity demonstrates the minefield that is U.S.-Russia relations in an escalating geopolitical climate.
Trump might have grand illusions about affecting Putin’s motivations, experts are warning to tread carefully. A former Kremlin official remarked, “Trump seems to be under the illusion that Putin only cares about the land.” In truth, Putin’s interests are more nuanced and enmeshed in a larger set of strategic objectives.
Though the world awaits this unprecedented meeting with much excitement, analysts are gritty with the reality of the stakes. Should Trump align more closely with Russia’s narrative, it could reshape U.S. foreign policy and alter the trajectory of international relations significantly.