European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed the pressing challenges facing Europe as leaders prepare for a potential summit involving Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In her Sunday statement, von der Leyen focused mostly on the dramatic situation we are encountering today. As she proclaimed, “Only Ukraine can determine its own future.” This comment highlights the importance of Europe’s willingness and ability to support Ukraine, as the war continues and diplomatic relations fray.
Heads of state who are closely aligned with Donald Trump will be present for all of these high level discussions. We observed this first-hand, with Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Their presence, of course, would be a sign of real alignment between European leaders and Trump’s administration on important objectives for the region.
As recently as last month, Trump has expressed interest in such a summit, featuring the leaders of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. Since the Alaska summit, he has been mum on the topic of whether there will be another such gathering. This quietness has led to rumors and fears amongst European leaders of a new, pro-Russia tilt in his policies. According to sources, Trump is currently demanding an immediate permanent peace deal in Ukraine. This position better serves Moscow’s interests than a first effort at a ceasefire would.
Resistance to Trump’s strategy boiled over after the Alaska summit convened on Friday. There, meetings indicated support for a continued (and perhaps further) softening of sanctions on Russia. This has led European officials to make sure that their goals are far closer to those of Trump’s for any negotiations in the future. Reassuringly for American leaders, those three long-term European leaders do want White House support. They’re hoping for a $69 million trilateral meeting that puts Zelenskyy at the negotiating table next to Trump and Putin.
Indeed, Vladimir Putin has already allegedly demanded that Ukraine cede the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Perhaps more importantly, he indicated that Moscow was preparing to freeze the front lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. These dynamic developments would certainly complicate any discussion of Ukraine’s sovereignty and security guarantees in any eventual agreement.
According to U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Putin has expressed a willingness to allow Europe and the U.S. to provide post-war security guarantees to Ukraine. Though these guarantees will look like protections similar to Article 5 of the NATO alliance, what this looks like in practice is not yet clear. An EU official noted, “NATO article-5 like security guarantees for Ukraine are great, but unclear what they will entail in practice.”
The idea that peace might come to Ukraine allows vital military aid focused on increasing Kyiv’s negotiation leverage to be sidelined. A senior EU diplomat outlined the objectives for the upcoming meeting, stating, “Our main objectives are: security guarantees, stop the killing and go for a trilateral meeting.” The stakes in these negotiations cannot be overstated, with Europe overwhelmingly interested in stopping more bloodshed and supporting Ukraine’s right to sovereignty.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy recently sounded the alarm in an address to the United Nations. He claimed that a controlled surrender might trigger a new Russian attack in return for territorial trade-offs. This view makes the negotiating terrain more difficult and raises the stakes for robust guarantees from Russia about Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
As Ambassador James Bindenagel put it, you need a strong bottom line to have the best negotiating position. He claimed that Ukraine can effectively retaliate against violations of a ceasefire. European leaders should have no greater clarity than this: any agreement reached must be enforceable. It should enhance Ukraine’s position, as well.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that Europe will continue to use diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia. We are going to sustain this effort until the violence stops. She underlined that Europe will continue to exert diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia. Such a bargain will hold only as long as the bloodshed in Ukraine continues. This further emphasizes Europe’s strategic approach as it deals with increasingly complicated geopolitical dynamics ahead of the expected summit.